We’ve got plenty of Breeders’ Cup picks and handicapping information lined up for the big races on Saturday, starting with one of our expert capper’s favorite races!
Marshall Posner joined the Pick Sixty team this summer and he’ll be contributing plenty of NFL and NHL wisdom in the months ahead but MP’s true expertise is at the track, where he has nearly 30 years of handicapping experience. If you have any questions about this horse racing article don’t hesitate to contact Marshall on Twitter.
BREEDERS’ CUP PICKS
The Turf is one my favourite races on the BC card and I’m going straight to the Euros here. Even with some of Europe’s best turfers absent, the American runners don’t have much chance in this race. My favourite horse is #1 Telescope – he’s been pointed at this race since the summer and he comes in fresh. His jockey has won this race three of the past six runnings and his trainer has won this race three times so the connections are solid. His last race was excellent behind Europe’s top horses in Australia and The Grey Gatsby. The latter came back to win his next out start as well. There aren’t any horses that compare to those two in this race. I like the post position for Telescope also because it’s a weird configuration fat 1 ½ on the turf at Santa and the outside horses will be wide running into a sweeping turn right out of the gate. Telescope will get a ground saving, rail hugging journey. He likes the distance with two wins from three and his been first or second nine of 10 times. His Racing Post Ratings convert to 111 and 112 at the distance which is higher than the Beyer par. Telescope will likely be the second choice on the board with odds of about 3-1.
Based on his second in the l’Arc de Triomphe, the likely fave is #7 Flintshire. He certainly has the class to win this race but I think he’s more likely to see a regression from that top Beyer last out as opposed to a progression. The Arc is often referred to as the most grueling race in the world so I’m going to play against this Euro on top. I do, however, think he can definitely get second or third.
The other Euro to consider is #4 Brown Panther. From looking at his past performances you almost get the feeling he wants to go even longer than a 1 ½ miles and he actually has several races at 2 miles or longer. From watching his replays you can see that he’s a massive animal so it’s no surprise he’s five for seven at the distance. I’m not sure how he’ll react to the tight turns at Santa Anita; he may have trouble navigating the course. His best races seem to be a cut below Telescope but if he takes to the course he could be tough. His morning line odds of 8-1 are also quite appealing. I’ll definitely use him underneath my top choice, Telescope.
Main Sequence might be a popular play because he’s won three in a row since coming to the States but he’s been beating up on American 12 furlong horses, which aren’t known for their quality. The wins haven’t come by a healthy margin either, which I’d expect from a top turfer. I’m going to use him in some triactors for third.
The final Euro to mention is the filly #11 Chiquita. She was actually the favourite in the Arc race but finished near the back of the pack so you know she has talent. She then raced back on Oct. 18th in Britain and drifted in the lane to lose the race. I think it’s asking a lot of her to show up in this race. Considering she’s winless in 2014 I’m not going to use her at all.
THE BOTTOM LINE
I’m going to bet Telescope to win at 3-1 or better and I’ll single him in my multi-race wagers. I’ll also bet an exactor box with #4 and #7 and use them both in a couple of triactors with all for 3rd.