Pick Sixty MLB: Blue Jays at Mariners

Toronto wraps its 10-game western road trip Wednesday with a nooner in Seattle


It’s been a long road for the Toronto Blue Jays but thanks to a couple of late comebacks followed by another throttling of Mariners ace Felix Hernandez Tuesday night, John Gibbons can already call this road trip a success. The Jays are 5-4 in their first nine games and today at 3:40 ET they’ll try and complete the sweep of Seattle before heading back east for a weekend series vs. the Oakland Athletics.

 

Toronto may be in ‘getaway’ mode this afternoon but it’s a beautiful day at Safeco and looking down the schedule, the Jays may want to take some time out west to enjoy the scenery. After Oakland they’ll host Boston followed by a trip to Tampa and then the Bronx. Life is never easy in the AL East.

 

Baseball odds for today’s game favor Seattle -107 with a total of 8.5 Over (-120). JA Happ (2-2, 4.91 ERA) is making his return to the lineup for his first start since May 7 and he’s backed by the hottest Blue Jay lineup since the club’s 11-game win streak June 11-23. Last night Jose Reyes started the party with a leadoff home run vs. King Felix and the Jays went onto win 7-2. With a line within 20 cents of ‘Pick em’ the Jays are 30-16 since August 11, 2006 after winning by five or more runs and here’s an interesting league-wide stat from KillerSports.com that’s “live” today:

 

[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]In 2013, MLB teams off a five-plus run victory are 21-10 when the line is within 20 cents of ‘Pick em’ when it is the last game of a series. Betting these teams has produced a profit of +12.1 units[/quote_text]

 

You can access that profile at SportsDatabase.com by clicking on the following link:

season = 2013 and -120 <= t:line <= 120 and tpo:runs + 5 <= tp:runs and SG = SGS and date >= 20130401

 

The Mariners counter with right-hander Aaron Harang (5-10, 5.27 ERA) today and Harang’s been a .500 pitcher at home the past five or six years but the safest bet when he starts at Safeco Field has been on the “Over”. The Mariners are 7-4 to the “Over” in 11 home starts this season and Seattle could be ready to swat back at Happ after the way Toronto treated their King last night.

 

MAN BEHIND THE MASK

In ‘getaway game’ situations it is always worth checking the home plate umpire and here’s a few key stats from the Sports Database suggesting this one could stay under the number.

 

When the total is within 20 cents of ‘Pick em’ and the total is between O/U 8-10 runs, Dale Scott has called 9 overs, 20 unders and 1 push in the AL since September, 2005

umpires [0]=Dale Scott and A and -120<=line<=120 and 8<=total<=10 and league=AL and date>=20050911

 

Scott’s past 26 AL games with any price have resulted in 5 overs, 19 unders and 2 pushes

umpires [0]=Dale Scott and A and league=AL and date>=20110618

 

Scott has also helped American League home teams to a 20-4 record the past three seasons when the total is between O/U 8-10 runs and the M’s are 4-1 since Aug. 31, 2010 when Scott is calling balls and strikes at Safeco. His last seven series finales played during the day have resulted in 2 overs and 5 unders.

 

Winds are light in Seattle and the Mariners don’t hit lefties very well (.225). Each of these teams has plenty of power but we lean towards Toronto and Seattle staying under 8.5 runs.

 

Good luck and enjoy the game.

 

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