Our top plays from the San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans game, free football handicapping contest picks and NFL weather watch from around the league with top trends in cities which could be affected.
As NFL fans get set for kickoff in Week 11 we can see that the Over/Under odds have become highly volatile with bettors trying to weigh weather concerns against all the other handicapping variables that go into making selections. Most of our plays are booked by now and we’ve run through the card with a few major points to consider including sports database systems, trends and injury updates.
BEST BETS IN THE BIG EASY
The San Francisco 49ers had a five-game win streak snapped last week by Carolina and the 10-9 loss also ended San Fran’s run of scoring into the 30’s. They’ll need to get back on that program in a hurry if they hope to compete against the league’s second highest scoring team and we’ve got a couple of great angles lining up to suggest this game starts off with bang.
The Niners don’t give up a lot of points in the first-half and their ‘Away’ stats are ridiculous (2.8) but they’ve played against some terrible teams in St. Louis, Tennessee and Jacksonville (at London). In games with a tight line, teams who lost last week and were leading at the half as favorites score an average of 14.5 first-half points which is right in-line with the Niners season average this year (14.7). New Orleans averages 19.4 first-half PPG at home and we’ve booked several plays on this one game as follows:
Niners at Saints, first-half OV 24 (-115)
Saints first-half Team Total OVER 13.5 (-115)
Saints -3 (-115) for the full game
In non-divisional conference games since 2011 the Niners are 6-3-1 O/U with an average of 29.4 points scored per game and despite Colin Kaepernick’s struggles we feel he should be able to steer his team well into the 20’s today. Drew Brees and the high-powered Saints offense should help take care of the rest.
EVERY EDGE NFL HANDICAPPING CONTEST
Pick Sixty’s lead writer and Editor in Chief, Jarvis Simes is competing in the annual NFL Invitational Handicapping Contest at EveryEdge.com where he’s been a member since 2001. For Round 2 of the competition against another one of EE’s lifers these are the picks “Jughead” has entered:
1. Saints -3.5
2. Niners and Saints OVER 48 ***BEST BET***
3. Cardinals -7.5
4. Falcons and Bucs OVER 43.5
5. Chiefs and Broncos OVER 49
Lines were set Thursday and there was no option for buying the hook which gives New Orleans and Arizona a bit of an ominous feel. Totals for several games have moved by two points or more since Thursday so that crossed a few games off the board but it also created value with the Niners and Saints. We’ll update the standings at Pick Sixty’s facebook page throughout the day.
WEEK 11 NFL WEATHER WATCH
We mentioned weather in the intro and it looks like rain could affect more than half the games Sunday but one thing to remember is that wind will play havoc on NFL betting totals much faster than water. Keep an eye on the wind for the Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (O/U 42), Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 52) and Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (O/U 41) before booking any “Over” plays. Here are a few high-percentage betting angles to consider for the three games listed:
– Teams are 2-12 OU (-6.61 ppg) since Oct. 21, 2012 within 3 of pick at home the week after a loss in which they had at least 300 yards passing (Live on Chicago)
– The Eagles have played under the total nine-straight times as a divisional home favorite
– The Giants are 0-21 O/U (-10.26 ppg) since Nov. 1, 1992 after a win at home in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average
NFL INJURY REPORT
These are some of the key injuries we’re keeping in mind for Sunday. You can access a full report at Week 11 Injury List.
– Atlanta’s TE Tony Gonzalez (toe) is questionable for their must win game against the Bucs
– San Diego LT DJ Fluker is likely starting against Dolphins edge rusher Cameron Wake
– The Raiders are handing the controls to rookie QB Matt McGloin for their game at Houston
– Jacksonville is down a linebacker as Paul Posluszny (concussion) takes item off to recover from an injury sustained in Week 10
OFFICE POOL PICKS
Depending on the size of your NFL office pool and how you’ve done through the first three quarters, it may be time to start thinking about stepping outside the box if you want to make a run at the season championship. Here is how one of our writers picked his straight-up winners in Week 11 with an eye on moving into the top 10 of his 150 person pool:
Falcons, Jets, Steelers, Skins, Bears, Cards, Texans, Browns, Chargers, Giants, Hawks, Saints, Broncos and Pats