NLCS Baseball Picks: Cardinals at Dodgers

The St. Louis Cardinals were shutout Monday and Ricky Nolasco gets the unenviable task of facing this disgruntled team in Game 4 of the League Championship series

 

All season long the Cardinals struggled against left-handed pitching and Game 3 of the NLCS at Chavez Ravine was no different. St. Louis managed only three hits through seven innings against Hyun-Jin Ryu and together, Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen closed the door in a 3-0 Dodgers victory. Down two games to one, LA is back in the hunt but the Dodgers lineup better come ready to hit this evening.

 

In 2013 the Cards had a record of 12-8 against righties following a loss to a left-handed starter and the team averaged 5.8 runs per game (RPG):

 

SDQL: team = Cardinals and p:L and po:STL and o:STR and season = 2013

 

Frustration really began to set in during the dog days when the Cards went 0-5 in this spot but since August 1, St. Lou is 7-2 in this spot with 8 overs and 1 under. The team has bashed 8.2 RPG in those nine games and four were played away from home.

 

Add the fact St. Louis is coming off a shutout loss and we know from all sports, no team likes getting shutout. In the month of October with totals of O/U 7 or less our records show a clean slate of 7 overs and no unders for teams in this spot and that includes a 3-0 O/U record in the post-season.

 

Ricky Nolasco will start for the Dodgers today and he did not finish the season strong, with 17 runs given up in his last three starts. Lance Lynn will pitch for the Red Birds and after coming close to a demotion in late-August, Lynn turned it around to secure his spot in the rotation entering the playoffs. Lynn had four consecutive quality starts but you have to consider the level of competition. Two wins came against Milwaukee, one against the Cubs and then there was a loss against the Rockies. In Lynn’s first playoff start he was shelled for five runs by the Pirates and you can bet this lively Dodgers squad will “bring it” tonight as they try to draw even in the series.

 

Home plate umpire Bruce Dreckman has neutral Over/Under statistics with a generic search but we added a few SDQL parameters to the search and can see that he is 16-8-3 O/U since 2006 with National League home favorites when the total is O/U 8 runs or less.

 

The MLB odds currently show this game at O/U 7 (-117) and our prediction is that these teams will find a way to sail over the number.

 

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