Our handicapping series on hockey picks looks at the probability percentage on today’s moneyline faves when laying the half-goal to win in regulation
Wagering on the moneyline is the most common style for hockey and baseball betting and the list from their goes puck line or run line, totals, props and futures. Several online betting outlets introduced adjusted lines in the nineties and as the sports betting industry grew, so did the number of gambling options. Laying a half-goal to win in regulation is a great option for high-priced moneyline favorites but as with any type of handicapping, due diligence on the game at hand is one of the keys to success.
We work closely with the Sports Data Query Language, or SDQL for short and one of the goals is to develop winning strategies that can be researched daily with simple SDQL codes. This week we’re testing out a new hockey system that compares the value between moneyline betting and 60 minute betting and the guinea pig is the Chicago Blackhawks who listed as -180 moneylines favorites tonight at Colorado.
The first thing we did was look at the Hawks’ record on the road as a big fave since 2010; regular season only and moneyline prices between -150 and -180. They are around -175 right now at Pinnacle and 5 Dimes and some other books have gone over -180 but this is close enough.
Chicago’s overall record in these games is 12-5 or .706 and for a moneyline fave of -180 to break even they need to win at least 64.3-percent of their games. So this shows a .63 (or 6.3-percent) value on the Hawks at -180.
13 of the 18 games were settled in regulation and the Hawks were 9-4 in those games. The price on that wager is -120 (laying the half-goal) and even though Chicago went 3-2 in the five games that ended up going to OT, those have to be factored in as ‘losses’ for those who laid a half-goal and that means the Hawks were only 9-9 overall.
This was the initial point of my research: Deciding whether or not the -120 was worth it for a team having to win in 60 minutes. In Chicago’s case, it’s clearly not worth the price.
Colorado plus a half-goal tonight is priced at -102 in regulation and +160 on the moneyline (ML). NHL home dogs of +150 to +175 are 38-54 during the regular season since 2010 (avg line of +159) and playing them has produced a profit of +6.5 units or 7.1-percent ROI. Risky but still profitable – Check the chart on NHL moneyline dogs here!
Of these 92 games, 19 went to overtime (21-percent). The draw on this game is paying back at +290 which is an implied probability percentage (IPP) of 25.6. In other words, the +290 odds are not paying back as much as they should. If the prop was +340 that would give an IPP of 22.7 which is much closer to the actual number of OT games that occurred. Countered with Chicago’s OT likelihood in these spots (5 out of 18 games = .278) and a few other factors we took into account, the OT prop in this case is still worth a small shot.
The Avs are 1-1 as a big home dog in this spot which is a limited sample and they haven’t been a HD of more than +130 since April, 2013. Colorado is 4-2 as a HD of more than +130 its past six opportunities since December, 2011. Looking more specifically at this matchup, Colorado has beaten the Hawks three-straight times and four of the past five and they are 4-1 in their past five scoring plenty of goals.
The Hawks are only 7-7 on the road off a road game against the Canucks and four of the wins were against poor CGY/EDM teams. Another two were against Columbus/Atlanta back in 2008/09. They only beat one good team in this spot: San Jose
Colorado is only 8-9-5 on the year so they can’t be considered a ‘good’ team but they are 4-4-2 at home and they’ve hit a nice stride. Calvin Pickard is getting the start tonight which was the clincher on these plays. With Semyon Varlamov sidelined the Avs have had to turn to Reto Berra more often than they would have liked to and after last night’s effort, he can’t be trusted. Pickard held the fort while the Avalanche staged a comeback in the desert and they’ll rely on him to hold off a Hawks team who are on the road for the fourth-straight time.
Colorado is 6-7 at home with no rest following a road game and 2-9-2 O/U. Click to view NHL trends via SDQL! We have three plays on this game:
Avalanche +160 on the moneyline (risk enough to win 1 unit)
Blackhawks and Avs UNDER 5.5 goals at even money (1 unit play)
Will the game go to Overtime? Bet ‘Yes’ at +290 (risk a third of a unit)