NHL Playoff Picks: Tampa Bay at Montreal

Predictions for the Lightning at Canadiens, Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks and Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks along with SDQL betting tips!

Tampa Bay had two offensive outbursts against Detroit in the first round and in the other five games scored a total of just seven goals. Their power play is just two for 34 in the playoffs and while they’ve given up a huge number of power play opportunities (32), they’ve only surrendered five shorthanded goals. Montreal’s power play is having struggles of its own with just one marker in 23 tries. It’s not as big of a surprise for the Habs considering they only ranked 23rd with a man advantage during the regular season but with Carey Price tending vs. Ben Bishop, it seems certain that goals tonight will be hard to come by.

For Game 2 of this series we’ve got three angles suggesting the Habs can even things up and a strong lean to the under. The current lines for Over/Under betting are charging -155 for a play on the under so that’s out of the question. We booked the Habs at -130 and our picks for the two later games are listed below, along with some Over/Under stats and playoff SDQL codes you can use from SportsDatabase.com.

Tampa Bay at Montreal Pick: Take the Habs at -130

SDQL PLAYOFF STATS

Early in the second round of last year’s playoffs (2013-14 season), I made a note that totals had gone to 32-11-10 (74%) to the OVER. In the first round of this year’s playoffs, home teams were 28-19 and totals went 19-21-7 O/U.

Updated records for home teams in Round 2 are 3-2 SU and 2-2-1 O/U. Through 52 total playoff games this year, the final scores have landed with a tenth of a goal from the average posted totals. It’s been pretty tough finding value on the Over/Under this season, that’s for sure.

2014 POs: Period by period scoring stats are 1.8 in the first, 1.7 in the second and 2.2 GPG in the third period. In five Round 2 games there have been 16 goals scored in the third. Nuts.

2015 POs: Period by period scoring stats are 1.6 in the first, 1.5 in the second and 1.8 GPG in the third period. In five Round 2 games there have been nine total goals scored in the third, seven less than the first five games of last year’s second round.

Use these codes to compare stats between the first and second round playoff games:

ROUND 1

H and playoffs = 1 and season = 2014 and date < 20150430

SU:         28-19 (0.38, 59.6%)            avg line: -135.2 / 122.2   on / against: +$310 / -$531           ROI: +4.9% / -11.2%

OU:        19-21-7 (-0.11, 47.5%)      avg total: 5.1

ROUND 2

H and playoffs = 1 and season = 2014 and date >= 20150430

SU:         3-2 (1.00, 60.0%)                 avg line: -154.2 / 139.0   on / against: +$30 / -$56                ROI: +3.9% / -11.2%

OU:        2-2-1 (-0.10, 50.0%)           avg total: 5.1

LATE GAMES – WILD at HAWKS

It’s hard to bet on the Wild for this game when I already have a series bet on them so I looked at totals and the first period “Over” 1.5 is on a 12-4 run for a penalty minute system. Full game, the past 30 contests are going over the total by more than a goal per game but with Chicago’s 20th ranked power play going just three for 20 in the playoffs, I don’t want to test them here against Devan Dubnyk. Minnesota has allowed just 12 power play opportunities this playoff and off a loss, I’m looking for the Wild to bounce back strong.

Pick: Take the Wild Team Total OVER 2.5 at +105

LATE GAMES – FLAMES at DUCKS

Calgary knows it needs to bring more offense to the table in this contest and now that they’ve had a chance to settle into the series, I’m looking for a better overall performance. The Flames are good at drawing penalties and their special teams unit has cashed five opportunities so far in the playoffs. Frederik Anderson doesn’t give up too many big rebounds but one thing about the Flames is that they won’t quit. Look for them to get in front of the net, disrupt the Ducks goaltender and dig out a few goals in a desperate effort to draw even.

Pick: Take the Flames’ Team Total OVER 2.5 at +115

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