We have a top rated pick “live” in tonight’s playoff game between the Rangers and Capitals!
This series shifts to Washington at one game apiece and the Caps are favored at -115 with Over/Under lines sitting on 5 UN -135. Washington is looking to respond to a 3-2 loss in Game 2 and so far in these playoffs, the Caps are yet to lose back-to-back games. Including the regular season, Washington has a 7-6 record at home off a road loss and since March 1, they’ve won three in a row in this spot. For all 16 games, the Capitals have a scoring average of 3.4 goals per game (GPG) and they’ve managed to score at least three goals in 11 of 13 matchups.
The Caps have reeled back their penalty minutes during the postseason and against the ultra-disciplined Rangers, we’ll look for Washington to continue this strategy. In the regular season, Washington averaged 4.39 penalties per game but during the first round (Islanders), the Caps reduced that average to 3.14 per game. New York’s power play was unable to find any rhythm and if the Caps can limit the Rangers’ opportunities, the hope is that they’ll keep them in check, too.
During the regular season, New York’s power play was 21st overall and so far in the playoffs they’ve cashed on four of 26 opportunities. Washington’s power play was first overall during the regular season and they’ve registered three markers on 16 tries thus far in the playoffs. It’s worth noting that New York’s penalty kill was sixth overall during the first 82 games so goals may be hard to come by but we have overwhelming evidence that Washington will win this game.
Based on three profiles, we have the Caps’ chances at winning this game rated as 69-percent, more than 10-percent higher than the implied probability of the -115 moneyline. The Caps are 26-19 SU at home this year compared to a 24-22 road record. Look for Washington to continue its disciplined ways and take back the series lead over their rival.
Pick: Take the Capitals