NHL Playoff Picks: New York Islanders at Florida Panthers

The series is deadlocked at two games apiece and tonight, Florida looks to take control!

We initially covered this series in NHL Playoff Picks and First Round Series Predictions, and tonight I’ve booked a two-unit play on the Panthers team total.

ISLANDERS at PANTHERS, GAME 5

The Panthers have scored 3-plus goals in three of the first four games, including 4 and 3 GF in the two home games. FLA averaged 2.9 GF on the season, 3.1 GF in all home games and 3.4 GF in 13 home games that followed a road game. They were only 7-6 SU in those games on an avg line of -151 (similar to tonight’s line), and they were 10-3 O/U including a current streak of 9-straight overs since Dec. 8. During those 13 games, FLA scored 3-plus goals nine times.

Florida’s problem was that they also gave up a ton of goals (3.3 GPGA) and that’s haunted them  here against the Isles, too. NY’s two wins were 5-4 and 4-3 so it won’t surprise me to see the Isles come flying in here, trying to open things up, rattle Lou and win another shootout. That’s why I don’t want to play FLA in regulation at +105.

I think FLA can win this game but to do that, they’re going to need at least three goals. Maybe that third goal comes into an empty net, or maybe it’s in OT. This bet covers those two possibilities. Playoff road dogs over the years that have given up a decent number of goals during a series and are coming off a close loss (1-goal margin), usually allow around 3.3 GPG with 63-percent of their opponents scoring 3-plus goals. On juice of -135, you need to hit 57-percent to break even so this bet has a small value of roughly 6-percent (thanks Pinnacle).

Based on the situation, I’m down for two units on the Florida Panthers Team Total OV 2.5 goals.

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