NHL Playoff Picks: Blackhawks and Bruins

The Blackhawks take a 1-10-2 Over/Under record on the road their past 13 games to Boston as these teams battle for the series lead

 

The Stanley Cup Final between the Chicago Blackhawks and Boston Bruins has changed venues for game 3 and we preview the action with our prediction on how the action will unfold.

 

In essence, these teams have already played game 3 or at least its equivalent, with nearly 10 periods of hockey in the first two games at Chicago. The Hawks were 18-4-2 away from the Madhouse on Madison during the regular season but during this playoff run they’ve only managed three wins in eight tries, grabbing one road win each against the Wild, Red Wings and Kings. Chicago’s road record dating back to April 6 is 7-6 but just one of those 13 games finished “Over” the posted total (1-10-2 O/U).

 

Chicago scored just 1.8 goals per game (GPG) in that span and with Tuukka Rask manning the net, goals don’t come easy in Beantown. Rask was 12-5-2 at home during the regular season with a 1.91 goals against average (GAA) and during the playoffs, the 26-year-old Fin has only allowed just 10 goals on 209 shots for a .952 save percentage. In Boston’s two home games vs. the Penguins they won 2-1 (OT) and 1-0 and this game is also shaping up like another low scoring affair.

 

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The Blackhawks had 1 over, 9 unders and 1 push this season when playing on the road off a loss

 

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Chicago knows it will need to establish a net presence but the Bruins are not about to let the likes of Jonathan Toews or Patrick Kane start pushing them around in the defensive zone. The Bruins were 6-2 at home this year off back-to-back road games and just one of those eight games climbed over the number (1-6-1 O/U). Since 2009, Boston has a record of 14 overs, 32 unders and 4 pushes at home in this spot, shown here with SDQL betting data from SportsDatabase.com:

 

team = Bruins and H and p:A and pp:A and season >= 2009

 

In the playoffs with a total of ‘5’ Boston is 6-1 the last seven times at home off back-to-back roadies and they’ve allowed an average of just 1.3 goals (2-5 O/U). Only one of those seven teams scored more than one goal in this exact scenario.

 

Cory Crawford is second among playoff goaltenders with a 1.72 GAA and .935 save percentage and he’s getting great support from his back checkers so it’s unlikely Boston will be able to light the lamp more than two or three times tonight either. NHL team totals are 2.5 for either side tonight but they are juiced pretty heavy to the low side so our strategy for betting this game is as follows:

 

Take the Hawks and Bruins to play “Under” 4.5/5 goals at the adjusted price of -102

 

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