NHL Picks: Red Wings at Blackhawks

Detroit needed seven games to get past the Ducks and finds a rested Chicago team that’s ready to blaze.

 

The second round of NHL playoff betting for the Red Wings and Blackhawks gets underway tonight from the United Center in Chicago and we have an Over/Under pick supported by strong data.

 

[dropcap1]D[/dropcap1]etroit was 2-2 on the road against the Ducks but NHL odds heavily favor the Hawks -191 to start this series off with a win. The Wings had 1 over and 3 unders at the Pond, scoring 1-5-2-3 goals and the total for tonight’s contest sits aptly at 5 Over -110. The lone “Over” in those first four road contests was when Detroit’s power play (PP) went 3 for 6 and in five games since then the Wings are just 2 for 15 with a man advantage.

 

During the regular season Detroit’s power play finished 15th overall, right next the Minnesota Wild (16th) team who Chicago just disposed of in five games.  Against Minny, Chicago’s penalty kill was perfect (0 GA in 17 chances) and during the regular season the Hawks ranked 3rd overall with similar numbers for home and away games.

 

The Wings had an impressive 23.7-percent mark at home at home but only 12.5-percent away (23rd). Minny’s numbers were almost complete opposite (far better on the road). Detroit’s penalty kill was 12th and Minny’s was 18th.

 

HISTORY LESSON

The last 17 games between Detroit and Chicago have gone 3-13-1 O/U and the 3 overs were the only games where more than five total goals were scored. Two of the overs were at the Joe and one was in the Windy City. First periods have been the highest scoring period but I don’t know if I see fireworks out of the gate in this one. Here is an SDQL code from the Sports Database which paints a clear picture of the battles these two teams have fought:

 

SDQL: team=Red Wings and o:team=Blackhawks and date>=20100411

 

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Games between these two teams played in Chicago since April 11, 2010 have produced 1 over, 7 unders and 1 push

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RESTED OR RUSTED?

Playoff home teams with 5-plus days of rest are 13-6 the past while, scoring 3.4 goals per game.  When they were favored by -150 or more that record improves to 10-2 (avg. line -190) and totals are 6-5-1 O/U.

 

In the last four years, Detroit is 0-3-9 O/U on the road with a total of 5 and their opponent is playing with 2-plus days of rest (6-6 SU).

 

SDQL: team=Red Wings and A and season>=2008 and total=5 and o:rest>=2

 

Chicago has thrived on rest in the last six seasons going 7-2 SU the last nine in this spot and 7-2-2 O/U the past 11. What I notice, though, is that only one of the games in this list was a playoff game.

 

SDQL: team=Blackhawks and H and season>=2007 and total=5 and rest>=2

 

FINAL ANALYSIS

The Hawks look poised to win this game straight-up but maybe Detroit’s grinders and goaltender Jimmy Howard can keep this one under the number.

Pick: Take the Wings and Hawks Under 5 (-110)

 

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