Nashville are taking on the Dallas Stars Friday night, the Predators hoping to claw their way back into the playoff conversation and Dallas looking to take advantage of its ‘games in hand’ over idle Vancouver
Nashville is off a game whereby they scored six goals in a home win. All NHL teams when off a home victory while scoring six or more goals and then playing on the road the next night are 8–21 to the under since 2007. Here is another key angle to consider:
Nashville is 1–10 to the under in their next game after scoring five or more goals in the last three seasons
These two teams have a long history of staying under the total when playing in Dallas going 7–17 to the under. All three games this season have played below the number of 5.5. Kari Lehtonen was first off the ice in the morning practice so he should get the start for Dallas. In his last three starts he has stopped 96 of 101 shots for a save percentage of .950.
Pekka Rinne is 4-0-0 with a 1.50 GAA and two shutouts in his last four games against Dallas as well as 1–5–2 to the under in his eight starts vs. division foes this season. Dallas is 19–36 to the under at home when playing with revenge when they scored one goal or less in their previous meeting (4–1 loss at Nashville).
Each team is battling for a playoff position and Dallas is playing their fourth game in seven days and hosting an opponent that’s playing eight of more contests in 14 days. All teams in this exact scenario are 194–304 = 61% to the under and more importantly producing a profit of +80.5-units when investing on the under.
I’ve invested on the under at 5.5 goals (-125)