Using the SDQL, we’ve combined a couple looks for disciplined hockey teams who finish a high number of games within tight margins
The Winnipeg Jets have been on quite the run of late, and Tuesday night they continue their playoff trek against the Vancouver Canucks. Although each of these teams has ranked top 10 for PIM most of the year, VAN has really cleaned up their act. The ‘Nucks have averaged just 3.9 PIM their past 10 games (4.46 on the season) and that qualifies them for a combo system I’ve been working on at the EveryEdge sports betting forum.
The key factors for Vancouver are that they are favored, they play a high frequency of games settled by one goal, and they have played disciplined hockey of late, taking an average of four or fewer penalties per game.
WPG is playing a back-to-back and this is their third game in four nights. I ran a bunch of different parameters for each side (rest, site, line, total) and everything checks out.
In the second-half of the season, playing these tight ‘Margin of Victory’ faves who have been disciplined of late to stay under has cashed more than 65-percent of the tickets when they are facing a tired team in the three in four. The record is 18-37-4 O/U.
When it’s the final quarter of the season, the hit rate jumps into the 80-percent range! It’s a limited sample but that’s because the number of potentially live games has only started to increase in recent years, as refs call fewer penalties. Since 2011, the record is 0-7-1 O/U.
There is one more angle “live” for this game offering back a huge ROI on the dog and straight-up; it’s had only one sub-.500 and sub-money season (2011) in database history. I’ll follow up on more of these angles down the final stretch of the season.
For tonight’s game, consider backing the Winnipeg Jets at +130 along with the Jets-Canucks “Under” 5 goals at +115.