NFL Wild Card Trends, Tips and Totals

Handicapping into for this weekend’s NFL Wild Card game including our Best Bet!

The NFL Wild Card weekend is upon us and the betting markets are starting to heat up. Tennessee opened as 7.5-point dog in Kansas City and that ATS line has been on a one-way track all week. Current odds show the Chiefs at -8.5 with the total slipping a half-point to 44.

Bettors are having a hard time trusting Marcus Mariota and this is a tough venue. The Titans will need to rely on their defense if they are going to win at Arrowhead and speaking of defense, can the Chiefs really be trusted?

Kansas City’s D allowed 365 yards per game this season, fifth most in the league. Their D allowed between 330 and 368 yards each of the past seven seasons, too. KC’s playoff record in that span is 1-4 SU. The difference in this game is that they are expected to cover a huge spread.

Tennessee has a comparable defense to the Chiefs and each allows a defensive drive success rate between 3.5 and 4.0 points. Single-digit home faves are often overvalued in this spot. The avg line is -4.9 points and they do win SU 65% of the time but only by 4.66 PPG. When we are getting +7 or more, that is value on the dog.

Check the Twitter feed @PickSixtySports for an official play on this game.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Falcons at Rams

Line: Rams -5.5 and O/U 48

The Los Angeles Rams jumped off the page when NFL Wild Card odds were first released and went as high as -6.5 before the peel back began. This is the Falcons’ first true outdoor playoff road game since the 2011 season when they lost 24-2 at New York the Wild Card Round. The climate in Los Angeles will be a lot better but the trip is a lot further, too.

NFL Wild Card

The Falcons are “live” in a road dog angle that is 22-9 ATS the past four seasons

Atlanta is 10-2 ATS in its past 12 games on the left coast and that includes a solid Week 11 win at Seattle this year. They were playing with a chip on their shoulder then and it feels like the Dirty Birds have been waiting all year to avenge last year’s Super Bowl loss.

I covered this game Tuesday at Super Picks and then featured it as a Best Bet on Thursday. My play is on the Falcons -6 points and that line is still available at Pinnacle, if you have an account. Getting a full six is important in this game. It may not seem like a key number under normal circumstances but after hours of research on this game, I was able to identify the six as key number when backing a Wild Card road dog.

Over/Under bettors also want to check the Trend Mart at Killer Sports for a 63% angle “live” on the Falcons – Rams. The Bills at Jags game also qualifies. 

My top play for now is on the Falcons to cover in LA. I will be looking to add at least one or two more plays throughout the next 24 hours.

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