ATS playoff predictions for all four games generated from Pick Sixty’s power rating system!
My old-school power rating system had been put on the shelf a few years ago after too many weeks of mediocre results. It needed an overhaul and this year, mid-way through the season I decided to dust it off and tweak a few things. Results were alright in Week’s 10-11 but they still looked too much like the old rankings; not enough credit was being given to the ‘little things’ that help teams win games: Penalties, turnovers, coaching; that sort of thing.
Before Week 12, several adjustments were made and the six plays that week finished 4-2 ATS with faves going 3-2 ATS and the one dog (BAL) winning SU/ATS on the road at New Orleans on Monday Night Football. The Ravens (7.7) were the strongest play of the six that week and they are “live” once again this week at Pittsburgh with a Power Rating Advantage (PRA) of 9.4.
This new system is still considered to be in its developmental stages and I plan to change a few things during the off-season so it’s ready to roll in Week 1 of the 2015 season. It’ll be experimental then, too, but a big part of handicapping football is the ability to make adjustments. Sportsbooks and oddsmakers are doing it all the time and if you want to have success, you have to be willing to learn from mistakes and try to avoid making them again.
In Week 16, these Power Rating Picks went 0-6 against the spread. It quickly sunk a 75-percent hit rate down to 60-percent in a heartbeat. For Week 17, who knew what to expect? The system produced seven plays and those games went 5-2 ATS. All five winners were coming off a loss and that little sub-section of teams now has an impressive 13-4 ATS record (76-percent). It’s “live” on two of four games this week so without further adieu, here are the projections. Oh yeah, the overall record for these plays is 23-14 (62-percent).
WILD CARD POWER RATING PLAYS
One more word of warning (for lack of a better term).These numbers have not been adjusted for player injuries are there are a few key injuries to consider before making any play this week. PGH RB Le’Veon Bell is out, ARI QB Ryan Lindley is starting and Cinci WR AJ Green is doubtful.
Teams off a loss are marked with a *
*ARI +6.5 (11)……. Read our Best Bet on this game for more info!
BAL +3 (9.4)………. Read Pick Sixty’s ATS prediction for the Ravens at Steelers!
IND -3.5 (5.3)…….. Our play on this game is “Under” 24.5 in the first-half
*DET +6.5 (5.5)…… We booked this game early in the week at +7