The Indianapolis Colts are facing another tough defense in Minnesota this week and the Colts have not had a lot of success in recent games vs. the Chiefs, Steelers and Texans.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -5 and O/U 45.5
My power ratings are leaning to Minnesota for this game despite this being one of their higher pointspreads all season. Minny was -6 against Houston and destroyed them and the Vikes were -5.5 against the Lions in Week 9. They looked to have that game in hand for at least a straight-up win but fell apart late.
The total in this contest opened at 44.5 and peaked at 46 but it has since retreated. HC Mike Zimmer’s all-time record when the posted total is 42 or more is 10-23-4 O/U. Minny has covered 25 of those 37 games ATS. Access that information at the best free sports database on the net:
SDQL: team = Vikings and season > 2013 and total >= 42
The Colts have played under in three of their past four and the run game has been hit and miss lately. Mostly miss. In last week’s loss to the Texans, Indy had just 15 carries for 83 yards and they have only broken triple-digits once in the past five weeks. Indy is 8-0 ATS their past eight following such a low rushing effort and when the total is more than 45, they are 13-5 ATS. On the road with lower totals, however, Indy has averaged just 14.4 points in this spot (2-7 ATS). I think this game belongs to the Viking D and that translates into a value play on this inflated total.
Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Colts at Vikings UNDER 45.5 points