Handicapping NFL trends from four of Sunday’s top matchups with unique perspective on how to use scoring margins to pick winners
The strength and effectiveness of NFL trends and systems can vary greatly. From a 6-0 team trend to a league-wide, 70% betting profile with 100 or more samples to reinforce its effectiveness.
As a handicapper, you have to try and find the mix that works right for you. One of the challenges, as you start building a library of SDQL systems, is sorting through the conflicting data on any one matchup. Here is an example using info from the best Sports Database on the net. This is an over system and I uncovered it on Tuesday. I have yet to bet it and part of the reason is line movement.
SDQL: 0 < tA(margin) < 5 and AD and 0 < oA(margin) < 3 and NDIV and season > 2005
This angle for road dogs is “live” on four NFL games in Week 13. It’s looking at non-divisional matchups between two teams with positive scoring margins on the season. The record since 2006 is 29-9-1 O/U (76-percent).
The four games are listed here along with odds and scoring margins.
1. WASHINGTON (1.45) AT ARIZONA (1.55)
Line: Cardinals -2.5 and 48
This line opened at 49.5 and it has since been bought down to 48. I opted for a play on the side and featured this game in my writeup at EveryEdge, Week 13 Picks.
2. NFL Trends Live: BUFFALO (4.09) AT OAKLAND (2.91)
Line: Raiders -3 and O/U 48.5
This total opened at 49.5 and fell as low as 48 before bouncing back up a half-point on gameday. Bills starting CB Ronald Darby (concussion) is OUT and in addition, S James Ihedigbo (ankle) is questionable. That could be trouble for the Bills against Derek Carr and the lethal Raiders passing game, with or without a glove on Carr’s throwing hand.
Oakland is 9-2 O/U on the season. First was the Week 3 under vs Tennessee and second, the Week 6 game at home against the Chiefs. KC was off a bye and as a result, had gameplanned hard. The Raiders seem dangerous here but they are just 1-3 ATS this year as a fave laying -3 or more. Only five of Oakland’s 11 games this year resulted in wins by more than three points and when coming off a win, the Raiders are 0-14 ATS at home with these higher totals. See for yourself with this text:
SDQL: team = Raiders and H and total >= 45 and p:W and season > 2003
Home faves on a hot streak like the Raiders are an “Under” play and I noticed a stat at Football Outsiders this week that both Buffalo (27.7) and Oakland (28.3) rank in the bottom half of the league for ‘pace of play’. A lot of moving pieces here. Check my twitter feed @PickSixtySports for a potential play once the inactives are released.
3. MIAMI (0.82) AT BALTIMORE (1.55)
Line: Ravens -3.5 and O/U 41
One sportsbook has dipped its line to Ravens -3 at -125 this week, fishing for Baltimore backers willing to pay the price but they are not worth -125 when you consider John Harbaugh’s coaching style. I’m not sure what exactly to expect from Miami today but the Ravens team total is available at 21.5 at Pinnacle and I’m projecting they score between 24-28 points.
Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Ravens Team Total Over 21.5
4. DETROIT (0.82) AT NEW ORLEANS (2.45)
Line: Saints -6.5 and O/U 53
This total fell as low as 52 before the “Over” fish really started their feeding frenzy and as likely as it is these teams could score 30 each, I think its possible Detroit could finish south of 23. The last time the Lions went “Over” was Week 6 and that was against the Rams of all teams. Since then they caught Washington on a fourth quarter lapse and then played four weak offenses: Houston, Minny (twice) and Jacksonville.
Detroit’s defense is going to have its hands full today and I’m considering the Saints in a teaser but I’m starting to question the Lions’ one dimensional offense now that the post-Megatron hangover has set in.