NFL Totally Covered, Week 6: Giants, Broncos

Giants Broncos, Week 6

The New York Giants and Denver Broncos are the focus of our Week 6 NFL Over/Under feature

Denver returns from their bye week this Sunday. They will play host to New York Giants squad that could use a break more than anything right now. Instead, New York will travel two time zones and climb 5,000. Oh yeah, they also get to face one of the league’s toughest defenses.

WEEK 6: GIANTS, BRONCOS

Eli Manning has built an impressive 13-4 ATS resume as a TD-plus dog. Unfortunately, this is the weakest supporting cast he’s had to work with since first pulling on his Giants jersey. Sterling Shepard, OBJ, Brandon Marshall — all OUT. That leaves Evan Engram and Roger Lewis as Manning’s two most likely top targets. RB Paul Perkins is also out; no big loss, but it leaves the unproven Wayne Gallman and Orleans Darkwa inline to cover the load.

New York’s defense is also hurting and the softened pass rush with weak pass coverage is just what Trevor Semien needs to get his offense back on track. Denver scored below its projected DPS in each of its two games prior to the break. Big home faves on grass are a 62-percent bet to cover ATS in this spot and with lower totals, that hit-rate jumps to 77-percent (30-9-2 ATS). In these games with a sub-40 total we are also seeing the “Over” go 26-15 with a scoring average of 27.4 to 14.5.

We picked on the Giants last Sunday with our best bet on the Chargers to cover. It was tempting to load up the cannons against Little Eli and his crew once again in Week 6, but we’re taking a slightly different approach. Part of the reason is the fact that Denver is led by a rookie head coach. As long as they have earned at least one win, first-year HCs off a bye are only .500 against the spread when laying points. They are also 15-3 O/U, however. And we don’t expect either of these teams to take their foot off the gas in this primetime affair.

WEEK 6 NFL PICKS

Denver has back-to-back divisional road games on-deck at Los Angeles and Kansas City. They’re only straight up loss this season came on the road at Buffalo and we need to see Semien demonstrate an ability to kick this offense into gear. Non-conference teams ahead of a three-game roadie are 20-8 O/U and they’ve cleared by 8.8 points on average. We’re getting a low number here thanks to Denver’s stout defense. But don’t be surprised if that squad actually helps us get this game into the 40’s with a TD of their own!

TC Pick: Take the Giants-Broncos OVER 38 points

Pick Sixty’s Facebook page is another great source for exclusive NFL picks and info!