NFL Thursday Night Football Picks: Steelers, Ravens

Offense and a ton of mistakes set the table in today’s early games but for the main course we’re looking for a throwback to some smashmouth football between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens


Thanksgiving has served up a pair of winners for Week 13 bettors but the total for tonight’s AFC North battle between the Steelers and Ravens indicates that points will not be quite as easy to come by. Current sportsbook odds favor the Ravens -2.5 with a total of 41.


Each of these teams has a reputation for its defensive toughness and after a slow start; things are starting to come together. Pittsburgh won a key divisional road game at Cleveland last week while the Ravens beat up on a New York Jets team with serious issues. The Ravens are playing three-straight home games right now and this particular situation has produced a record 6 overs, 19 unders and a push in history when the total is between 35.5 and 45.5.


Looking at divisional Thursday games we can see a record of 12 overs and 21 unders with totals in this range and although the record so far in 2013 is 4-0 O/U, almost every other year since 1989 has produced a strong record for the “Under”. Access that chart with the following SDQL text: H and DIV and day = Thursday and 35.5 <= total <= 42.5


These two teams have a history of close games and with a line within +/-3 points of ‘Pick em’ we can see a record of 28-6-2 ATS for the road squad when the teams have identical records. We split our first two plays today and are leaning to the Ravens tonight but with conflicting ATS data on the side, our top prediction for tonight’s game is on the total.

Pick: Take the UNDER


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