The Washington Redskins have earned a lot of respect for last week’s win over the Rams and it’s created nice value this week on the New York Giants
WEEK 3 PICKS – THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Bench RG3, come close against Miami (who are 0-2, I might add) and then beat a St. Louis Rams (dome) team who were primed for a letdown after Seattle, and suddenly you’ve become a prime target for savvy divisional dog bettors across the board. New York opened at -4 this week and has been bought down to -3, despite one online sports betting site suggesting 74-percent action on the dog. Who do you trust in this world, eh.
NYG have held a fourth quarter lead late into each of their first two games and lost them both SU. Poor clock management and bad decisions; this team sort of reminds me of Atlanta in 2014. The Falcons lost one too many games they were in position to win and it eventually led to the dismissal of Mike Smith.
ATLANTA (2014) to NYG (2015) COMPARO
ATL opened the season 1-1 SU/ATS. They won a thrilling, high-scoring divisional game in OT in Week 1 and then followed it up with a non-divisional loss. NY opened season 1-1 ATS. The lost a thrilling, high-scoring divisional game in Dallas and then followed it up with a non-divisional loss.
Week 3, ATL rolled up on an inferior T-Bay team 56-14 on TNF. After that, the Falcons lost five-straight; the first four by double-digits. The fifth was the ugly loss in London where ATL led the Lions 21-0 at half-time but was outscored 22-0 in the second-half. Brutal play-calling and clock management kept them from winning this game. Sound familiar?
NFL PRIMETIME PICKS
The general trend on Week 3 road teams off back-to-back home games is that they cover at a 60-percent clip ATS and that record jumps to 70-percent in divisional games. Like most trends, though, there’s more to it. First of all, five of the last six divisional ATS losers were dogs. When the line was more than +2, road dogs have only won three of the past 13 games straight-up (7-4-2 ATS) and their scoring average is a paltry 18 points per game.
Kirk Cousins is a pick machine and his all-time record as a dog is 2-11 straight-up (5-8 ATS). Road dogs off an upset home win are 43-percent ATS the past 25 years including a 9-23 ATS (28-percent) record since 2013. On a short week, only two of 13 road pups were able to win straight-up (4-9 ATS). These are important stats because the straight-up winner on Thursday nights tends to cover at an alarming rate. Finally, Washington’s record the past few seasons in games with a total between 42-29 is 2-16 SU/ATS. New York might be a good fade the next few weeks but tonight, they’ve got my support.
Pick: Take the Giants