NFL Thursday Night Football Picks: Colts at Texans

Andrew Luck is is worse shape than anyone expected so it looks like Matt Hasselbeck will be the Indianapolis Colts’ starter tonight in Houston. It’s sending the ATS and Over/Under odds into a tail spin and we’ve got some sports betting information you should know before booking any wager.


Luck is the backup tonight and Houston starter Ryan Mallett has not had much success with the Houston offense. At home and with Arian Foster back, advantage Houston. My power ratings for this game said the Texans had value at +1.5 but they are currently laying -4 and the total has sunk to 41. Here are some handicapping tips for tonight’s game:

Each of these offenses is averaging less than 20 points on the season.

Divisional HFs who average less than 20 points are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS on TNF.

When the opponent came in averaging fewer than 20, the home fave rarely lost straight-up (25-6) and although totals are 12-19 O/U overall, the six games since the start of 2014 are 5-1 O/U, finishing “Over” by an average of 10.3 PPG. Only one of those six games finished with fewer than 52 points. Coincidentally, it was a AFC South game between the Jags and Titans.

All Thursday games with a road team who averaged less than 20 PPG on offense are on a 7-1 O/U streak since Week 6, 2013. Before that, these games were on a 5-17 O/U streak that dated back to 2006. Note: The home team went 20-2 SU in those 22 games.

When both TNF teams average less than 20 points on offense, TNF games with a home fave are 4-8 overall all-time with an average 33 points scored, well below the average posted total of 37.8.

When it was setting up like a close game; the listed line within +/-3 points of of ‘Pick’, the average score boosted up to 38 points (7-6 O/U) and games with a total of O/U 41 or more produced 4 overs and 1 under.


My numbers showed the Texans with value but there’s no way I’m touching this side with the current line. That leaves the total, team totals or course the host of props being offered for this primetime game. I’m leaning strong to the “Over” 41 but don’t want to rush the bet while the total is in such a downward spiral. Check the @PickSixtySports twitter feed for updates.

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