The Kansas City Chiefs are in the ‘Hot Spot’ Thursday when they head west to Oakland for a date with the Raider Nation!
Not to be confused with the proverbial ‘hot seat’ that so many NFL head coaches find themselves in every season, the ‘Hot Spot’ we’re referring to here is a mid-season divisional road fave zone that has generated seven-straight winning seasons against the spread.
WEEK 12 PICKS – THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
The NFL odds for each slate of games usually hit the public betting markets late Sunday night, just after the second-half kicks off in the marquee game. By the end of the third quarter between the Patriots and Colts I had had just about enough of Jonas Gray and it was time to check early NFL lines for Week 12. This primetime matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders was on my radar screen since August and I had a projected line of KC -4.5 to -7. When the gate opened at -6 it was bet to -6.5 within minutes but we got in at -118 and now we’ll see if Andy Reid and his merry band of Chiefs can help extend their ATS win streak of nine-straight with support of an angle that’s hitting 75-percent since 2007.
`CAPPING NOTES AND SYSTEMS
The general setup is for divisional road faves of more than -3 points in the ‘meat’ of the season (Week’s 7-12). It looks to me like Week 6 and Week 13 will also produce winning records but if you want to cut off the crispy ends and focus on the real grilled cheese, take a look at these numbers:
[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]From Week’s 7-12, divisional road faves of more than -3 points are 33-3 straight-up and 27-9 ATS since 2007[/quote_text]
Andy Reid’s record after dark was a pedestrian 23-19 ATS with Philadelphia but as a road fave; Reid won three of his final four chances SU/ATS by scoring 40.5 PPG. His lowest was 27 points and the high was 59 in a Monday Night Football game against the Redskins in 2010 (remember that!). In two primetime tilts with KC, Reid and QB Alex Smith are responsible for a 2-0 SU/ATS record with wins over the Eagles and Patriots. The Chiefs scored 26 and 41 points in those two games, seen with this SDQL system code from SportsDatabase.com.
Since HC Reid took over the Chiefs are taking no prisoners when it comes to the so called ‘winnable’ games. Their past 13 games against teams with a .500 (or worse) record, Kansas City is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS, winning by an average margin just shy of 14 points per game. Their current run is six-straight covers, dating back to Week 14 of last season when they rattled the Redskins 45-10. On the road the Chiefs have a perfect 6-0 ATS record with Reid when facing teams with a .500 record or worse. Click NFL Trends with Benefits
Teams like the Raiders who have yet to win a single game are a dangerous fade, illustrated by their 49-18-3 ATS record after Week 9 but we got in early and like the Chiefs to win by at least seven points.
Pick: Take the Chiefs