Our NFL record in the past two weeks sits at 13-5-1 ATS and we’ll start things off in Week 8 with a play on the side and total from Denver as well as an early prediction for Sunday’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles!
This week’s NFL card kicks off in Denver where the Broncos will try and win two-straight home games against the Chargers for the first time since 2005. Since then, divisional road dogs off a divisional home fave loss have stayed under the number in 16 of 21 contests but very few were pitted against an offense as potent as the current edition of these Broncos.
WEEK 8 PICKS – THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Odds: Broncos -8.5 and O/U 51.5
Note: The first-half line is Denver -6 and O/U 27.5
Denver is coming off a 42-10 blowout win over the Niners and its helped boost today’s line from -7.5 up to -8 or even -8.5 points. The total is also getting hit hard with public betting action and right now it can be found at O/U 51.5 with several online sports betting outlets. Home teams off a home win are just 6-12 to the under in games with a posted total greater than 49 points and San Diego’s defense has posted good numbers this year but most of it came against weaker competition. The Chargers will get a couple more ‘gimmies’ against the Raiders and Rams after their bye week but they plan on making a return trip to the postseason, the Chargers will have to raise their level of play. Along with a Week 15 rematch vs. Denver, San Diego will face the Ravens, Patriots and Niners before a Week 17 trip to Arrowhead.
There is a couple playoff revenge angles suggesting this game could go over the total but upon closer inspection, we see that games from Week 8 out actually start to lean under and the three most recent games with totals greater than O/U 48 all stayed well under the number. The lone divisional game in this sample, Week 14, 2010, went over 50.5 thanks to 20 fourth quarter points and the three games involving Peyton Manning went 1-2 O/U, finishing with 61-43-44 total points.
NFL PRIMETIME PICKS
If San Diego’s run game was in better shape we wouldn’t be getting this many points. The loss of Brandon Flowers in last week’s goal line collision with Jamaal Charles also hurts but every Charger who does suit up Thursday knows they need to bring their A-game to have a hope at an upset. San Diego is 8-1 ATS their past nine games at Mile High including a 27-20 win here late last season. We’re taking this as a value play on a respectable road dog and are also betting this game to stay under the number. In general, these early week games with high totals have stay under the number six-straight times since 2011.
Pick: Take the Chargers +8.5 (5 Dimes)
Pick: Take the UNDER 51.5 (Pinnacle, William Hill)
Early Buy! If you’re looking for early value on the Week 8 card consider betting the Arizona Cardinals at -2.5 points before it moves to -3. The Eagles won 27-0 at home over the Giants in Week 6 and as usual, are getting respect with this line but the Cards just got their starting QB back. We look for a strong game out of Arizona here.