NFL Thursday Night Football Picks: Cardinals at Rams

The Arizona Cardinals kick-off Week 14 in St. Louis and we have key betting information for the matchup along with our prediction, SDQL systems and the first look at our Power Rating picks!

Arizona has become accustomed to new looks at all the key positions on offense this season but if the team is hoping to build on its impressive home record they are going to have to prove they can go on the road and win a tough divisional game. The Cards lost 19-3 in Seattle three weeks ago and followed that up with a disappointing loss in Atlanta. Four days ago they held off the Chiefs at home and tonight begin a three-game stretch of divisional contests to finish the season.

WEEK 15 PICKS – THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Arizona’s win over the Chiefs didn’t come easy but for St. Louis, the past two weeks have looked like a cakewalk. It could be challenge for HC Jeff Fisher to get his troops ready on such a short week but in all his years with the Oilers and Titans, Fish went 5-1 straight-up in this spot. With the help of the SDQL at SportsDatabase.com we ran some league-wide queries on this setup and the general trends suggest a 60-percent value on the under. Length of rest was not a factor in this angle for either the road or home team. Have a look at the game list by clicking on this SDQL Text: HF and p:AW and op:HW and season >= 2000 and 37 < total < 44 and season >= 2001

 

When last week’s win for the home fave was against a .500 or worse team, the under is stronger (67-percent). They didn’t have to work quite as hard for the ‘W’ as they might have had to if it was an upper echelon team. The defense was not overextended and they should be ready for another strong game. The lower total this week indicates we have a decent defense to rely on.

 

There wasn’t as much discrepancy on the road dog’s previous opponent’s win percentage but as long as it wasn’t top tier (greater than .600), this profile moves into the 70-plus-percent range with 13 overs and 32 unders since 2000. The average total in all these games was 40.8 points. When the home fave is laying more than -3 to a max of -10 points, suggesting a reasonable edge in overall talent, the total is hitting 84-percent in database history and 88-percent since 2003 with a record of 3-22 O/U.

NFL PRIMETIME PICKS

Lower divisional totals on Thursday were blown out of the water last season but the first two games “live” in this angle for 2014 each stayed under the number by double-digits. Sticking with the trends in the first section we can see a 3-13 O/U record when the home team is coming off a win. If both teams are off a win the system shows an 11-20 O/U record and the eight games with lower totals produced a pair of overs and six unders. We’re leaning on the Cards for this game with the points but there are too many question marks on offense and the Rams are playing really tough football lately. St. Louis has only allowed 34 total points its past four week and Drew Stanton’s career road record shows an average offense of just 14 points per game. The Rams also have a notable edge in special teams but hopefully the Cards are prepared for some of the trickery.

Pick: Take the Cards and Rams UNDER 40.5 points

WEEK 15 NFL VALUE PICKS

We’ll be posting NFL Best Bets and Over/Under predictions for Sunday along with our usual Week 15 ATS betting trends but in the meantime, here are two more plays to consider booking now before the odds move against us:

1. REDSKINS at GIANTS UNDER 47

2. RAIDERS at CHIEFS UNDER 41.5

Pick Sixty’s power rating plays are off to an impressive 20-6 ATS start and the first three plays for this week are on the Cardinals +4.5, Chiefs -10 and the Buffalo Bills with as many points as you can find. The common line right now is +4.5 but Bodog Sports has a +5.5 available; be sure to shop around and good luck tonight!

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