The Bucs at Panthers kicks off Week 2 and we have a 2.5 star Over/Under prediction backed by SDQL trends and data.
Panthers QB Cam Newton has won 3-straight against Bruce Arians and Norv Turner wants in on that action!
Bucs at Panthers – Thursday Night Football
Line: Carolina -7 and O/U 49
The Bucs at Panthers game is an important matchup for both teams considering their misfortune in Week 1. These two will meet again in Week 6 but including tonight, Tampa Bay is playing three of four away from home. Carolina goes to Arizona and Houston next and the team needs something it can build off.
Divisional home faves on TNF are 7-4 O/U in the early season but the scoring average in those 11 games is 28-19 (47 points).
Week 2 games went 1-3 O/U and on the whole season, these type of games are 24-46 O/U (66% UN).
Games with a total of 49+ are 3-9 O/U and the average score was 25-20 (45 points).
Faves laying -6.5 or more with high totals went 1-4 O/U with scores avg’ing 29-18 (48 points).
Check out our SDQL System of the Week for more Week 2 trends!
Bucs at Panthers Prediction
Panthers turned the ball over three times last week and lost. They were 45.5% on third downs and 3 for 3 in the red zone but neither of those stats are very sustainable, especially on a short week. I’m thinking they try and take better care of the football, plough behind that O-Line and grind out a win.
As a big home fave (6-10 points), Rivera is 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS at home, outscoring teams 32-14. That’s 7 points more than the avg home fave scores on a Thursday and I don’t see the Panthers going much past 27 tonight.
Cam Newton’s scoring average at home is 24.9 to 20.3 (45.2) and as a conference home fave it goes to 28-19 (47 points).
Cam’s record against HC Arians is 3-1 SU and 3-1 O/U with a scoring average of 28-18. Newton and Rivera have won three-straight over the former Cardinals coach and they’ll surely want to maintain that dominance tonight.
Bucs team total is 21 and I thought about playing that to stay under but with the full game instead.
Week 2 TNF Pick: Take the Bucs at Panthers Under 49