NFL Sunday Night Football Picks: Cowboys at Giants

The New York Giants offense must have been saving up for this one because they were terrible against San Fran last week. We handicap the game with player updates, betting systems and our prediction for the Sunday finale

The Dallas Cowboys needed time to regroup after losing back-to-back games to the Redskins and Cardinals and they accomplished that with a team building trip to London, England. Yeah, they had to play the Jacksonville Jaguars while visiting but did you see the box score? Dallas led wire to wire, kept Tony Romo upright (one sack allowed) and rushed for 151 yards. It was text book. Tonight’s game in New York will not be quite as easy as the one at Wembley but the good news for Jerry Jones is that is shouldn’t be nearly as tough as those two home dates against Washington and Arizona.

WEEK 12 PICKS – SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NFL odds for this game opened at Dallas -3 and public betting money started pouring in slow and steady up until Saturday morning when it finally moved to 3.5 across the board. New York lost the turnover battle against San Fran by four and the only other time this year they lost by such a margin, they responded with a 30-17 home win over Houston. NY ran the ball 42 times for 193 yards in that game and Eli Manning attempted just 28 passes in that game, tied with his season-low.

NY was happy getting RB Rashad Jennings back and he carried 18 times for 59 yards. Andre Williams only had two carries for two yards, ending his run of five consecutive games with 10 or more carries. SF is good against the run but in what was constantly a one-score game, it begs the question: Why would NY shy so far away from the run when their QB is throwing up duck after duck?

Williams is only good for 2.9 YPC and NY was 2-3 SU in the games where he was featured so he’s nothing more than a change of pace back. If Williams carried 10 times in this game for 30 yards it will be interesting to see what kind of potential Jennings has with one game under his belt.

Let’s say NY leans heavily on the road against a Dallas and gets Jennings 20 carries; his career RYPC is 4.2 and the Cowboys run-D ranks 13th overall. We’ll give him 85-95 RY on top of 30 (high end) for Williams and best case scenario, I’d say New York hits 125-130 total rushing yards.

Manning is 34-7 SU/ATS when he gets more than 150 RY but that record drops to 11-9 SU/ATS when the team rushes for 125-150 yards. Against the division the record is 2-5 SU/ATS but the most recent games were in 2009 and the reason is because the Giants have been forcing the run against the division every chance they get – and why wouldn’t they? Look at NY’s results when they run the ball 34 times against the East: They’re outscoring teams 32 to 15 and averaging 177 RYPG! Click the SDQL Text: Eli Manning:PY > 50 and DIV and rushes >= 34

`CAPPING NOTES AND SYSTEMS

The last time NY rushed 34-plus times against Dallas was during a Monday Night Football game in 2010. The Giants led the game 24-20 at half-time and outscored the Cowboys 14-0 in the third quarter. Dallas had a strong finish but came up short in a 41-35 Giants win. Since then New York is 3-4 SU/ATS against Dallas (three-game losing streak) and in those seven games NY averaged 108 RY on 26 carries. The Cowboys answered back with 100 RYPG on 23 carries but Romo passed for 282 yards. The scoring averages are dead even at 26.7 PPG each but the five more recent games since 2012, Dallas is 4-1 SU/ATS and the two most notable differences are that A) NY’s PYPG average dropped 35 YPG and scoring averages shift to 28-24 in favor of Dallas.

New York can pound the ball all they want vs. Dallas but I don’t necessarily believe that will translate into 150-plus rushing yards. Manning’s average passing yards per game this year is 241.8; almost identical to his 241.4 PYPG average from the past five meetings with Dallas.

So far this season the Cowboys have faced seven teams whose rushing attack was on par or better than New York’s and Dallas answered the call five times, going 4-3 ATS. The losses were in Week 1 against San Francisco when Romo threw three picks and Week 8 against Colt McCoy and the Redskins when Romo was injured during the third quarter. San Fran ranks third in the league for takeaways (2.1 per game) and they are sixth against the pass. Washington’s run D ranks 12th compared to the Giants (28th) and as long as Romo is in this game for four quarters, he and RB DeMarco Murray should be able to guide this offense to a win.

Pick: Take the Dallas Cowboys

 

Cowboys were one of Pick Sixty’s early NFL picks this week and we post free picks throughout the week via Twitter with write-ups posted at the PK60 Facebook page!