NFL Sunday Night Football Picks: Chiefs at Broncos

The Kansas City Chiefs bring their perfect 9-0 record to the Mile High City Sunday night for a primetime showdown against the Denver Broncos. It’s not often you’re going to see a 9-0 team getting more than touchdown vs. a division rival but the way Denver has played this season, shredding opponents for more than 41 points per game (PPG) it would have been foolhardy for online sportsbooks and NFL odds makers to post this spread any lower.

Public betting percentages at Vegas Insider currently show the Donks at 58-percent with 77-percent money coming in on the “Over”. It’s currently clear skies in the Rockies with temperatures falling into the upper 30’s by kickoff with winds in the 5-10 mph range. Here is our breakdown for tonight’s AFC West matchup with our betting prediction noted at the bottom.

WEEK 11 PICKS – SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

KANSAS CITY at DENVER

Odds: Broncos -7.5 and O/U 49

KC is scoring an average of 12.3 first-half PPG including 13.3 first-half points in road games. Against three teams with .500 records or better the Chiefs scored 7-16-13 points in the first-half. The 7 was at home vs. Dallas and the two double-digit tallies were on the road against the Eagles and Titans. Tennessee’s defensive numbers are comparable to the Broncos but Mile High can be a tough venue for the visitor. Since 1989, the Chiefs are 6-18 SU at Denver (10-14 ATS) with 13 overs, 10 unders and 1 push.

[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]In seasons where the Chiefs had a winning record they are 7-4-1 O/U at the Mile High City with an average 20.3 points scored per game[/quote_text]

The Chiefs are one of the league’s top possession teams (32:15) but they only produce 4.8 yards per play (YPP) and while that is fine on home turf against teams like the Giants, Raiders, Texans and Browns, it’s not going to cut it vs. a team like the Broncos. Look for an accelerated gameplan this evening.

 

There was never any doubt over Peyton Manning’s availability for Week 11 Sunday Night Football but there are no guarantees he will finish the game. Obviously there are no guarantees any NFL player will finish a game he starts but Manning has been one of the most durable, reliable players of this generation and even against the stout KC D we are expecting another top notch performance from the ultimate field general.

 

Manning has a 3-3 SU record when facing the league’s top scoring D and a 6:8 touchdown to INT ratio but the league has changed a lot in recent years and divisional home faves in this spot are 20-6 SU with 20 overs and 6 unders since 2004. First-half scoring averages are 18-11.1 in favor of the home team and we are projecting each club to score into the double-digits tonight.

Pick: Take the Chiefs-Broncos OVER 24.5 (-105) in the first-half

 

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