The Week 15 card has delivered a ton of upsets, overs and touchdowns but according to our sports betting stats and systems this divisional matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers should start slow and stay low!
Cincinnati and the “Over” are getting pounded with most of the online books we’ve checked through Sunday’s betting action but William Hill still offers Cinci at -1 and the total at Sports Interaction is still as high as 44.
WEEK 15 PICKS – SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Cinci has won three-straight games and in the two home games they scored into the 40’s but the road game out at San Diego, the Bengals won 17-10. Cincinnati is 2-4-1 ATS on the road and 3-4 O/U. Two of the overs were against NFC teams (at CHI and at DET) but their last three conference road games all stayed under. The Bengals have rushed for 149 yards (avg) in their past three road games and they were outscored 11-3 (avg) in the first-half. Do they change it up against a Steelers D ranked 23rd against the rush?
[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and since Week 6, Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in games with a line between +/-3 points.[/quote_text]
QB Andy Dalton’s five games against the Steelers he is 2-3 SU/ATS with 4 unders and a push. The first three, all losses, Cinci rushed the ball 97.7 yards and was outscored 28-14. The two wins since then were completely different scripts. Last year in Week 16, Cinci didn’t have a run game to rely on so they threw the ball 41 times and won 13-10. The Bengals rushed 16 times for 14 yards in that game.
Earlier this year at home the Bengals rushed 34 times for 127, completed 25 of 45 pass attempts for 280 yards and stumped the Steelers offense completely (278 yards). It was arguably the Bengals best overall effort of the season. At Baltimore a few weeks ago Cinci ran the same kind of program (31 rushes, 120 yards, 51 pass attempts for 244 yards). They sacked Joe Flacco five times but also sustained five QB sacks but Pittsburgh may have a hard time getting pressure on Dalton.
The Ravens D ranks much higher than Pittsburgh against the rush and the pass. Baltimore and Cinci are both top 10 sack teams and the Steelers are 26th but they have really turned up the pressure lately (3.0 per game in their last six). One of the deciding factors for us is that the Bengals have a huge edge in O-line for both rushing and passing.
The Bengals have been a top under team for bettors in December since 2007 and as they hunt down the AFC North title we look for a concerted effort from this team on both sides of the ball. Divisional road faves since 2006 who won the first meeting are 15-4 SU and 12-5-2 ATS at this point of the season when laying less than -3 points. For tonight’s game we have two plays to consider.
Pick: Take the Bengals-Steelers UNDER 21.5 points in the first-half
Pick: Take the Bengals to cover