Live NFL betting is available at most online sportsbooks these days and between smart phones and tablets your next bet is just a few tabs away. Here is a proven wagering strategy for how to increase your profits on the top road favorites from the past 13 years…
Football bettors have become accustomed over the years to laying road chalk on talented clubs such as the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers. If you pick your spots carefully, hopefully you’ve turned a profit on these high priced road faves but teams like the Colts, with their league-leading 65-percent ATS hit rate since 2002 (minimum 20 games) are one of only two elite teams who have consistently lined bettor’s pockets in the parity-era of pro football betting.
With the help of the SDQL SportsDatabase.com system, we ran a test of the 10 most frequent road favorites since re-alignment and compared ATS results from flat betting with the win-percentage for these teams when trailing at the half. The results may surprise you.
THE USUAL SUSPECTS
Since 2002, the ten teams most commonly listed road faves in the NFL are New England (69), Indianapolis (63), Pittsburgh (61), Philadelphia (53), Green Bay (50), Denver (50), New Orleans (48), Baltimore (44), Dallas (40) and San Diego (40).
Add those numbers up and we get a total of 518 and from those contests, our road favorite has taken a lead into the half 345 times or 67-percent. But what about the other 173 games? We decided to find out which of our elite teams had the most value for live betting or a bet made at the half.
The five teams who are most frequently trailing at the half as a road fave were Baltimore (46-percent), Dallas (40-percent), San Diego (40-percent), Philly (38-percent) and Denver (36-percent) so perhaps the first lesson is to avoid laying points on those teams away from home in the first place.
But from all 10 teams, the ones who displayed the best ‘comeback-ability’ from a game where they trailed at the half are San Diego (81-percent), Pittsburgh (79-percent), Indy (75-percent), Dallas (69-percent), Philadelphia (65-percent) and Baltimore (60-percent). On average, these teams performed 21-percent better against the spread on a bet made at the half while trailing than on a regular ATS play beforehand.
[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]Best Second-half Comeback Road Teams: Chargers, Steelers, Colts, Cowboys, Eagles and Ravens![/quote_text]
The potential for making these plays is obviously limited. First we need our team to be favored on the road and then we need our team to be trailing at the half. But the massive 21-percent increase on returns makes it well worth the wait.
Of note, the two teams who performed better with outright bets made before the game were New England (60-percent) and Denver (56-percent) with an honorable mention to Green Bay (55-percent). But the Broncos (39-percent) were the only team in this study whose second-half ATS margin for road games where they were trailing didn’t clock in with at least 57-percent. The average for all 10 teams: 64-percent ATS on 173 plays since 2002 (12.8 plays per season).
As with all games, it helps to handicap and watch the action before making any bet based on a system alone but this is just something to think about next time you are considering laying road points on a popular favorite.