Our NFL preseason totals are 6-0 the past two weeks and we have three selections circled for this week’s round of football picks
In Week 2, the “Over” was a goldmine for those who care to dabble in preseason football betting and it’s driving up the totals for three of this week’s five games. It is ‘dress rehearsal’ week with starters expected to play into the third quarter and perhaps last night’s over in Philadelphia is helping drive the number with online books. We have three Over/Under games booked for tonight, though, and judging by line movement it likes like these plays are going against public consensus.
JACKSONVILLE AT DETROIT
Line: Lions -3 and O/U 44.5
The Jags haven’t scored well the first two weeks but they did get a home win. This is their second consecutive road game and the Jags will start the season with back-to-back roadies but I’m not convinced they will be able to go into Detroit and move the ball. QB Chad Henne has limited experience indoors and while the ATS line reads well (4-1 ATS), the Dolphins/Jags were getting close to +10 points average in those games. The five games ended with 1 over and 4 unders.
Detroit had a low scoring home win in Week 1 followed by a high scoring road loss in Oakland (27-26). The Lions have a new coach this year (Caldwell) with limited experience from his days in Indianapolis and they open at home on Monday Night Football vs. the Giants. It’s a winnable game for Detroit and there’s little doubt the offense will be able to produce. The onus on this team is to make sure they know how to limit mistakes, win a close game and close the door defensively.
Pick: Take the Under
BATTLE OF NEW YORK
Line: Jets -1 and O/U 44
The Battle of the Big Apple features two undefeated teams and the money is edging these NFL odds towards the Jets and the “Over”. The Giants scored 17 points in the Hall of Fame game, 20 in Week 1 at home (W) and then 27 on the road in Week 2 (W). Week 3 and 4 the Giants are in New York to try and figure out their new offensive scheme but we don’t expect them to solve their issues vs. Rex Ryan’s defense.
NFL System Says: Undefeated preseason teams off a road win by three points or less are just 6-21 ATS since 2004
The Jets open the regular season at home against a very beatable Oakland team. Rex will want to have all his best ammo out for that one (NY hosted Oakland in December last year, winning 37-27 to end a three-game losing streak and catapult the Jets towards a 3-1 SU finish which likely saved Rex his job) and although the Green Machine usually fares well in Week 3 of the preseason, we like this game to stay under the number.
Pick: Take the Under
Our third play for tonight is on the Oakland Raiders and Green Bay Packers to stay “Under” 44 points. We’ve also booked the Washington Redskins +3 points from Saturday’s card and you can still find good lines for that game at the Greek and William Hill. Good luck with your plays.