NFL Playoff Predictions: Saints at Vikings

NFL Playoff betting tips, systems and SDQL trends for Sunday’s matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings!

Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints are getting points Sunday in Round 2 of their NFL Playoff matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. New Orleans is coming off a 31-26 win over a tough Carolina defense but the Vikings are home, and they are perhaps the toughest D in the league today.

By Jarvis Simes

NFL Playoff Picks: Saints at Vikings

Betting Line: Minnesota -5 and O/U 46.5

The Saints went 11-5 SU during the regular season for a .688 win percentage. Minnesota was 13-3 SU including a 7-1 record at home. When the Saints are getting points on the road against a team with a better win percentage, Sean Payton and his crew are 12-2 ATS the past few years, seen with this SDQL from Sports Database.

SDQL: WP < o:WP and AD and season > 2013 and team = Saints

Brees will face a serious challenge against the Vikings secondary, headed by Xavier Rhodes. The Saints will need to rely on Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to produce big gains on the ground and through the air, while New Orleans’ top deep threats draw coverage from the corners and safeties.

NFL playoff running backs

Saints running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are up against the stout Vikings D in Round 2 of the NFL Playoffs!

Last week, the Saints only rushed for 41 yards compared to 369 passing yards vs. the Panthers.  That imbalance has proven tricky for the Saints to overcome in the past but it’s mandatory if they want to compete here. Conference road dogs on turf off a home fave win where they had a 3:1 PY to RY ratio are 13-8 ATS, too, so it’s within reason.

My top play on this game is on the total and I’ve also played the side for beer and pizza. Pick Sixty’s overall record this season is 39-31-2 (56%) and we hit our NFL Playoff Best Bet Saturday so we’re sticking with what works.

NFL Playoff Picks, Totally Covered

The Vikings have only been lit up once in the past five weeks by the Panthers. They have got a definite swagger coming into these playoffs but strong D’s at home in this spot are 16-4-1 O/U since 2009. View this 80% SDQL system at the Killer Sports Trend Mart.

The Saints special teams ranked top 10 throughout the season. As a playoff dog, they qualify for one angle that is 19-4-1 O/U in the past seven seasons. It factors ‘non-offensive touchdowns’ with SDQL and can also be viewed at the Trend Mart.

I don’t expect turnovers to be a deal breaker in this game as both the Saints and Vikings finished top 10 in the league for fewest giveaways. When the home team is rested, these higher totals have resulted in a 8-1 O/U record in database history.

Minnesota has proven to be a proficient offense with Case Keenum at the controls but the Saints still rank first overall with 6.25 yards per play. In my opinion, the ATS line here has overcompensated for the Viking D that built its rep against a greater variety of offenses throughout the season. Minny played Cinci, Green Bay and Chicago down the stretch. One of those teams will have different coaches next year. Another one should (Bengals), and GB was using a backup QB.

Round 2 Prediction: Side and Total

New Orleans was 7-1 at home in the regular and also won there last week. Their only home loss was Week 2 against the Pats and if this game was in Louisiana, the Saints would be favored. Minnesota’s strong home record was noted above but when you consider the Saints’ overall talent, I don’t think either team here should be favored by more than three points. Playoff road dogs in this profile are 22-10 ATS and dogs between +3 and +7 are 9-4 ATS. I’m hoping this one turns into a shootout. My money is on the “Over” with a little more sprinkled onto the dog.

Top Pick: Saints and Vikings OVER

Beer and Pizza: Take the Saints +6 points (-115)

The SDQL Trend Mart has additional info on this game! Get codes and explanations breaking down the systems that are “live”!

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