Pick Sixty Sports updates the Over/Under record for AFC vs. NFC matchups this season with wagering tips for Week 14’s four inter-Conference games
In case anyone is trying to keep track, the non-Conference totals since Week 12 of this year are 8-3 O/U. The reason that’s important is because if you look back to the past couple season, also known as the Golden Age for inter-Conference “Overs”, we see that that regular season record from Week 12 out is a combined 73-percent to the over (32-12-1 O/U). Here’s the season by season record courtesy of SportsDatabase.com:
2012: 13-6-1 O/U – 68-percent
2013: 11-3 O/U – 79-percent
2014: 8-3 O/U – 73-percent
This week there are four non-Conference totals to consider and three of them are lined at low numbers by this year’s Over/Under standard (41 or less).
NEW YORK JETS at MINNESOTA
NFL Odds Online: Vikings -6 and O/U 40
It’s not surprising this line is moving towards the Vikings – they covered at home against the almighty Packers and just took care of the Panthers by an 18-point margin, 31-13. What’s important to remember here is that 14 of Minnesota’s points last week came via blocked punts returned for touchdowns – only the fifth time in league history a team has done that twice in the same contest. Carolina’s special teams are the worst in the NFL and while New York’s only rank 20th, there is lot less likelihood the Vikings (ranked 9th) will be able to rely on those kinds of points.
Our general rule is that with lower totals and two poor offenses who don’t boast exceptional special teams is a lean to the under. Home field tips things towards Minnesota winning this game straight-up but wait on this line; at +6 we are already leaning hard on New York to cover and if this line hits +7 on its own we’ll book it.
NEW YORK GIANTS at TENNESSEE
NFL Odds Online: ‘Pick em’ or Giants -1 and O/U 45
The Giants are the only team in our extensive list of power ratings that didn’t get a single ‘green’ or ‘red’ mark this week as we evaluated strengths and weaknesses. New York didn’t stand out in one of 17 categories we monitor – good or bad and against the Titans that’s not such a bad thing. Tennessee is in a building stage and we’ll look for improvements next year under Ken Whisenhunt and D-Co Ray Horton’s guidance but the Titans run defense is atrocious. They have lost six-straight and given up 150-plus rushing yards in four of the past five games (avg. 166 RYPG allowed). Giants RB Rashad Jennings (sprained ankle) did not practice Thursday and he is an integral part of New York’s offensive success. Keep an eye on his status and follow the Pick Sixty Sports Twitter feed for updates on this game.
KANSAS CITY at ARIZONA
NFL Odds Online: Cardinals -1 and O/U 40.5
Kansas City has given up more than 175 rushing yards in three consecutive games and the record since 1994 says teams in this spot in 19-8 ATS with 11 overs and 16 unders. Research those games with the SDQL Text: po:RY > 175 and ppo:RY > 175 and pppo:RY > 175 and season >= 1994
SAN FRANCISCO at OAKLAND
NFL Online Odds: 49ers -7.5 and O/U 41
Teams off a Thursday home game are a 71-percent bet to the “Over” since 2010 but road faves of -7.5 or more off a home loss are just 10-25-1 O/U in database history. Its difficult knowing what to expect from a team who just got whupped the way Oakland did in St. Louis but we should see a gritty effort. After all, some of them could be auditioning for their new coach on either sideline.
Statistically speaking, there is a strong chance that two or three of these games goes over the total this week but remember to run the games through your usual handicapping routine. Going 2-2 cost you juice but going 1-0 on your best bet is nothing but gravy and the best part is that there will be six more non-Conference opportunities to consider in Week’s 15-16.