NFL Betting – Coach Notes

With SDQL we’ve identified a couple of Over/Under betting angles live in Week 14 that are hitting better than 70-percent

In the 2013 NFL Handicapping Bible we introduced a SDQL code for tracking results of this year’s sophomore coaching class. The previous season the combined record of second-year football head coaches from Week 14 out was 22-11 SU/ATS (67-percent) with 21 overs and 12 unders (64-percent) and right now seemed like a good time to re-visit the profitable sports betting angle to see if anything lined up.

 

The second year coaches this season are Jeff Fisher (Rams), Chuck Pagano (Colts), Greg Schiano (Buccaneers), Joe Philbin (Dolphins), and Dennis Allen (Raiders). Their combined record in 2012 was 36-44-1 SU and 42-37-2 ATS (53-percent) and so far in 2013 they are showing a 30-29-1 ATS record with 33 overs, 26 unders and a push (56-percent OV). Click the following code provided by our friends at SportsDatabase.com to bring up the big picture:

 

SDQL: season = 2013 and (team = Rams or team = Colts or team = Buccaneers or team = Dolphins or team = Raiders)

 

The sophomore HC class of 2013 has had three winning weeks SU through the first 13 weeks but six of 13 weeks cashed a profit ATS. The “Over” went on a real tear from Week’s 5 to 11 (22-8 O/U) and dogs of more than +7 points went 9-2 ATS before Week 13 but both of the big pups lost SU/ATS last week.

 

This week the Bucs are small home favorites and the other four teams are road dogs from +3 to +7. Four of the totals this week fit into a profitable mid-range between 41 and 45 that has produced a 74-percent record consisting of 23 overs, 8 unders and a push.

 

BUFFALO at TAMPA BAY

Best NFL Odds: Bucs -2.5 and O/U 42 (William Hill)

The Bills are coming off a wild one in Toronto where they sacked Falcons QB Matt Ryan six times and rushed for 195 yards but still ended up losing OT. So far this year, NFL teams who are getting points the week after hauling down the QB four-plus times have posted 28 overs and 15 unders (65-percent OV). That includes a record of 19-8 O/U when our dog is playing on the road. We don’t have to worry about weather affecting this game so find the best number you can and take the Bills-Bucs to soar over the total.

Pick: Take the OVER

 

Pick Sixty’s Trend with Benefits NFL betting feature is 9-6 this year (60-percent). Check back later for this week’s TWiB Notes!