The Miami Heat are coming off an upset loss and the San Antonio Spurs look to take a 2-0 lead over Golden State
When the betting windows closed on Monday’s NBA card it appeared as if nothing could stop the Miami Heat from steamrolling the Chicago Bulls. Through three quarters the game was close but a 35-24 run during the final frame gave the Bulls a 1-0 series lead and left everyone, including sportsbooks, wondering what was in store for Game 2.
[dropcap2]M[/dropcap2]iami is a -12.5 point favorite tonight vs. the Bulls with moneylines priced at a ridiculous 12 to 1. Totals are down to 186.5 with some outlets from an opening price of 187.5 and although it’s seen a recent correction, there is still a solid 71-percent playoff betting trend worth noting.
[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]Since 2003, home teams in the second game in the second round of the NBA playoffs are 33-9 SU and 28-14 ATS with 29 overs, 12 unders and 1 push (71-percent)[/quote_text]
When the home team is coming off a loss they have bounced back nine of ten times (8-2 ATS) but the Over/Under record evens out to 5-4-1, suggesting perhaps the side is a better play. Average margin of victory for home teams like Miami in this spot is nearly 14 points per game (104.4 to 90.8) but we should also note that tonight’s total is almost six points lower than the games in this sample. See all of this data for yourself by entering the text below into the search engine at KillerSports.com:
SDQL: playoffs=1 and series game=2 and H and round=2 and p:HL
THE ‘DUBS’ at THE SPURS
If a team took game 1 in their second round series by five points or less, such as the Spurs in their dramatic 129-127 overtime win Monday, results since 2003 show a 6-3 SU/ATS record with 7 overs and 2 unders. Only four of those nine games climbed over the 200-point plateau but regardless of whether or not this game sees extra time, it’s clear these teams know how to pick up the pace.
Both the Heat and Spurs were coming off extended rest before opening their second round series and signs of rust, especially with Miami, were quite evident. Look for Miami to crank up the intensity tonight as this game sails over the lowered total. We also suggest backing the Warriors and Spurs “Over” but try and hunt down a ‘204’; we all saw what a difference a half-point can make last night in New York.