Monday Night Football, NFL Picks: Raiders at Broncos

The Broncos led from wire to wire in Peyton Manning’s first home game against Oakland

 

From 2008 to 2011 the Raiders looked forward to their mountain adventures but the Sherriff moved to the Rocky Mountains and things went downhill in a hurry. Tonight the Oakland Raiders will try and stay within two touchdowns as each of these teams battle in their first divisional test of the season.

 

WEEK 3 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

The Raiders are fresh off a 10-point win against the Jacksonville Jaguars but we’re talking about a football team who on average has now been outscored 31-9 through three weeks. If anything, Oakland’s 19-9 win was a letdown.

 

Denver has dominated two starts against Baltimore and New York and the Ravens showed they have life Sunday by beating Houston. Wins against the Giants, however, are not worth writing home about. The Broncos are home for the first of two-straight and they have the Eagles on-deck. Tonight’s line has bounced back and forth between -14 and -15 with the total dipping to 48.5 before the primetime public surge hit Monday morning, triggering inflation. The best line for “Under” bettors right now is at Sports Interaction where you can get a ‘50’ at -105.

 

Undefeated home teams who are favored in Week’s 2 or 3 on Monday Night Football have produced a record of 4 overs and 12 unders since 1989 and although three of the overs were divisional, the totals were listed at 37.5, 37 and 47. Average scores in this 16-game sample finished at 26-17 in favor of the home side and while it’s entirely possible the Broncos will score into the 30’s tonight we find it highly unlikely the Raiders will crack 20.

 

Oakland’s best chance is to lean on the run, protect the football and try to generate a turnover or two. They’ve done a great job grinding out nearly 400 rushing yards the first two weeks but their turnover margin is -1.5 and they also finished in the negative last season (-0.4).

 

We would like to see Denver take an early lead and then try to get some work for their stable of running backs. Offenses with good lungs that are adept to playing at high elevations would be a nightmare for a Chip Kelly-led club, don’t you think?

Pick: Take the Under

 

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