Monday Night Football, NFL Picks: Jets at Falcons

The New York Jets roll into Atlanta for their first meeting with the Falcons since 2009 and we preview the action with betting stats, winning systems and our top prediction

 

Since Atlanta’s 10-7 win over the New York Jets in December, 2009 the Falcons have won 40 football games straight-up compared to New York’s 33. The Jets have only five wins in their past 19 road tries and both of their wins this year came at Met Life Stadium. Still, it’s more wins than the Falcons (1- 3 SU) have managed through the first quarter and bookmakers are suggesting a correction is in order, starting tonight.

 

WEEK 5 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Sportsbook odds offer the Falcons -9.5 or -10 and the total has climbed as high as 45.5 at one sports betting shop (Sports Interaction). Since 1989, Week’s 5-7 has by far shown to be the best three-week range for betting non-conference home favorites in the entire season (123-35 SU) and these teams are winning by an average margin of 8 points per game (PPG) but they are only covering the spread at a rate of 56-percent (84-66-8 ATS).

 

[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]Non-conference home favorites of -9 or more points are just 19-25-1 ATS from Week’s 1-4 but from Week 5 on they are 144-23 SU and 91-74-2 ATS[/quote_text]

 

Coming into the 2013 season the Atlanta Falcons boasted a 14-5-1 ATS record against non-conference foes since Mike Smith took over the team in 2008. So far this year the Falcons have squandered a road lead against the Dolphins to lose 27-23 and were unable to keep pace with Tom Brady in a 30-23 loss to the Pats in Week 4. If you included their final AFC game from 2012, a 23-20 straight-up win against the Raiders where Atlanta failed to cover the 9-point spread, the Falcons ATS losing streak against non-conference teams is at three-straight. It’s the team’s longest ATS losing streak vs. the AFC since 2003 when they lost their first three non-conference games SU/ATS, all as dogs and twice as road dogs.

 

Atlanta should win this game straight-up looking at Monday home faves o -7 points or more we see a record of 17-1 SU and 13-5 ATS since 1989, winning by an average margin of 15.4 PPG. The last seven games in this profile since 2004 are also 6-1 O/U although four of the six overs cleared the total by less than 2 points. It leads us to our Monday night Over/Under pick.

 

TOTALLY COVERED

When the line is -9 points or more the MNF HF is 10-0 SU, 9-1 ATS and 3-7 O/U. The under was on a 7-game win streak until 2005 and all three “live” games in this spot since then have gone over but two of the overs still finished with fewer points than today’s total (40 and 41). The only one of these 10 games to finish with more than 41 points was Week 6, 2006 when the Colts beat the Rams 45-26 (OV 51). Here is an SDQL code from SportsDatabase.com illustrating the trend:

 

HF and not C and day = Monday and -9 >= line

 

The Jets gave up 38 points last week in Tennessee so they are ripe for the picking but Atlanta’s played two-straight games where more than 50 points were scored and the results were less than favorable. Against New England, Matt Ryan threw for more than 400 yards and tracking his team back the past few years we see a strong trend of 2 overs and 12 unders as home faves following a pass-oriented contest.

 

We liked this game under at 44 and public sports betting money for a standalone game has once again added some gravy to the total. For a Monday Night Football pick take the Jets and Falcons UNDER 45.5 points.

 

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