Monday Night Football, NFL Picks: Jets and Bills

Please do not adjust your set! The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills are under the lights for a bonus betting opportunity tonight at Ford Field and we have a prediction for how this game will play out along with some key SDQL stats from Sports Database!

The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills game was moved to Monday at Ford Field in Detroit because of a blizzard that hit Buffalo during the past week. Buffalo has played several neutral site games north of the border at the Rogers Centre in Toronto and their 1-5 SU record in those games doesn’t suggest they should be favored against anyone in this contest but if we focus more on recent form, the odds make sense.


Early NFL odds for Week 13 games are getting just as much attention as this one but the big fish on tonight’s sports betting plate is the Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints. We booked the Ravens as Power Rating Best Bet for tonight but after looking through the numbers on this game we decided to add a play on the team total.

The Jets have rushed the ball 30-plus times in four-straight games (35.5 avg rushes for 171 RYPG) but they are only 1-3 SU in those games, the win coming at home over Pittsburgh thanks to a +4 turnover margin (TOM). Buffalo is fifth overall in TOM per game at +0.7 and the Jets are 31st in the league at -1.1. Normally, teams are a fade in this spot and the record since re-alignment is 75-percent ATS but the Jets are coming off a bye week and that reduces the sample size to just two games. Nevertheless, the post-turnover benefactor lost both times SU/ATS. Here is a chart featuring the 12 small faves (9-3 ATS) who faced a team that was +4 in TOM the previous week, compliments of Click SDQL NFL Betting Systems!


Rex Ryan off a bye with the Jets is 1-4 SU/ATS and the win was on the road against the Bills in 2011. Remember, that was Chan Gailey’s team and including that loss to NY, the Bills were 1-9 SU in their last ten games of that season. The last two years off a bye the Jets lost by margins of 21 and 23 loss. In 2013, it was a 37-14 loss to the Bills.

The Bills have lost three games this year by double-digits and that was against the Chargers, Pats and Dolphins. In Doug Marrone’s early days with Buffalo his teams went 0-3 SU following double-digit losses but the past four times, since Week 11, 2013, Buffalo is 3-1 SU with wins over the Jets, Jags and Vikings. The loss was earlier this year in HOU, a team who ranks 11th in opponent scoring and 2nd overall behind the Cardinals for opponent yards per point.

Look at the where the other teams rank in those categories and the margin of points Buffalo won by:

NYJ: 26 and 32; Bills won by 23

JAX: 32 and 25, Bills won by seven

MIN: 15 and 15; Bills won by one point

It’s also worth noting that those first three post-blowout losses in 2013 were against the Bengals and Chiefs at home (two playoff teams) and the Steelers at Heinz Field.


[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]The Jets have only held two teams below 24 points this year and both were at home: Oakland and Pittsburgh[/quote_text]


The Bills have scored 20, 37 and 43 points against the Jets since Marrone took over. Buffalo is 5-5 SU on the year and I’m sure Miami’s loss to Denver yesterday is providing plenty of bulletin board material for getting these guys motivated. We had the “Under” 40 in this game circled if it was to take place outdoors but on the fast track, we’re backing Buffalo to trample their way into the 20’s. Shop around for the best line; we played this at the Greek online sportsbook.

Pick: Take the Bill Team Total OVER 22 points.


Our NFL picks went 1-1-1 on Sunday and along with the Bills team total we are on the Ravens +3. Watch for our early Week 13 picks tomorrow @PickSixtySports!