Monday Night Football, NFL Picks: Giants at Vikings

Stephon Diggs and Sam Bradford lead the Vikings offense while Adrian Peterson recovers

The New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings are on the field and we’ve got player updates, trends, systems and SDQL you can use for handicapping the big game.


Every week we feature a preview for the big game at EveryEdge and if you haven’t had a chance to read that yet, click MNF: Giants at Vikings for a look.

This game is attracting fairly close action for each side and as the total slips to 42.5 at some online books, it would appear the under is the consensus play. My first instinct on this game was to play the “Over” and with Minny sitting at 0-2-1 O/U we are getting a great price but after a closer look, I decided to put my money on Mike Zimmer and his defense. Zimmer is riding a perfect 11-0 ATS hot streak vs. teams he had a better record than last season and with both of these teams coming in off low time of possession games, I give the advantage to the home side.


When two teams meet on MNF and each had less than 28 minutes time of possession in their previous game, there is a pretty strong trend towards the home team. This was “live” in Wk 3-16, as well, and NOR lost ending a streak of 11-straight SU/ATS wins for the HF. Let’s not take away from ATL offense; they came in with a good gameplan. But the Saints’ D and special teams Monday night would have made ANY team’s gameplan look A LOT better than it already was.

New Orleans came into Wk 3 MNF allowing 451 TY per game on D. Of the 11 HFs that won SU/ATS in this spot before NOR, only one was allowing more than 400 TY per game. The other 10 allowed approx. 340 TY and Minnesota’s D comes into this with a 295 TY avg (6th in the league).

Also note that NOR (-2.5) was the first “live” team in 10 years not favored by more than FG. Overall, the HFs of more than -3 have a 17-4 ATS record at Sports Database and when our opponent comes into this contest off a loss, the HF is 11-3 ATS. Check the numbers with the following code:

SDQL: tp:TOP / 60 < 28 and op:TOP / 60 < 28 and MNF and HF and line < -3 and op:L

I’ve got numbers supporting the Giants here as well and you could have made a lot money fading Monday Night Football home favorites over the years but this Vikings D seems like the real deal. RB Rashad Jennings (thumb) is out and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will be limited with a groin. Darian Thompson and Eli Apple are also out so as long as Minnesota WR Stephon Diggs is healthy, Sam Bradford should have a chance to make plays. Sharrif Floyd is out for the Viking D but they’ve got depth and great chemistry. My power rating numbers say the Vikes are the play (Low rated play) and I laid the points. Good luck to anyone that follows.

Pick: Take the Vikings

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