Monday Night Football, NFL Picks: Falcons at Packers

It’s tough building an argument for the Atlanta Falcons to storm into Lambeau Field tonight and beat the Green Bay Packers straight-up but the Falcs do have a few tricks up their sleeve and we found a couple solid angles supporting a contrarian pick for the first-half

The Green Bay weather for a Week 14 matchup with the Atlanta Falcons is cool with snow showers turning into the odd flurry by kickoff. In other words, ideal for a home team looking to secure its post atop the NFC North division standings.

WEEK 14 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

The Packers opened as an 11.5-point fave this week and that’s been bought up to -13 with a few places offering reduced juice. The record for double-digit home favorites on Monday Night Football betting is 23-15 ATS with just three of 37 teams losing straight-up; the latest casualty coming in Week 9, 2013 when these Packers lost 27-20 to the visiting Bears. Before that, 21-straight double-digit home faves had won straight-up (14-7 ATS) and that generated a record of 18-2-1 (90-percent) for these teams when used in a 10-point teaser. Get this full rundown with this SDQL link from SportsDatabase.com!

 

Totals for these high-priced home teams since Christmas Day in 2000 are 12-11 O/U and at O/U 55 this is certainly one of the highest. The record for games over 49 is 4-1 to the over and the six December games averaged 17.5 first-half points per game but the average total in those games was just 40.2 points. The six games finished with an average 43 points per game and just one saw more than 20 points scored in the first 30 minutes.

 

The overall record for dome teams outdoors on MNF from 2006-13 was 40-percent ATS and it’s hard to see how these Falcons will hang with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers for a full 60 minutes but one thing we have to consider for this matchup is the improved Falcon run game. Atlanta carried the ball 34 times during last week’s win over the Cardinals, their second highest tally of the season and it’s no coincidence those two games rank as the Falcons most efficient overall games of the 2014 season. The other high-carry game was Week 3 against Tampa Bay – Click here for the Atlanta Falcons Team Page with full season rankings.

 

For a chance to win this game straight-up the Falcons have to run the football, they’ll need to create a few turnovers and maybe even have some success on special teams with ace Devin Hester returning kickoffs and punts. Road dog dome teams in these high total games are 3-8-1 O/U the past eight years and the first-half scoring averaged just 21.1 points per game. We can also see that since league re-alignment in 2002, of the 20 Monday games where the road team had won two or more of their last three was facing a home team with four or more wins in its past five, only four saw more than 27 points scored in the first-half. The final outcome of those 20 games was 7-13 O/U (65-percent OV) so for our money the value here is on the first-half.

Pick: Take the Falcons and Packers UNDER 28 first-half points

 

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