Monday Night Football, NFL Picks: Dolphins at Jets

The Miami Dolphins are wrapping up a two-game road trip this evening with a stop in New York for a divisional battle against the Jets. We’ve packaged up a couple Monday Night Football betting trends with SDQL and a prediction for the big game

You don’t see NFL teams playing back-to-back Monday night games very often but that’s the exact role the New York Jets find themselves tonight when they host the Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium. The line on this game opened at Miami -6 and Monday odds are still available at -6.5 with a total of 41.5.

WEEK 13 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

The Dolphins were a popular underdog pick in last week’s trip to Denver and the box score reads well but the Broncos poured it on late scoring 22 fourth quarter points in a 39-36 win. Since 2006, Miami is 10-7 ATS after a loss where the led through three quarters and the totals for those games show 5 overs and 12 unders (71-percent UNDER). See for yourself with this SDQL trend from SportsDatabase.com!

New York does not possess many of the same attributes as the Broncos so the table is set for the Dolphins to roll in and salvage a straight-up win from this two-game road trip but after looking at all the sports betting stats, we decided a play on the Jets team total was the way to go.

The TTs for this game are 24.5 and 17.5 and I could truly see this game ending 24-17 for Miami. It’s December, the wind will be blowing at MetLife Stadium and the Jets offense is horrible averaging just 16.1 points per game. Miami should win this game straight-up but they are a slow playing team and that not a good recipe for laying divisional road points. Check out this angle for divisional road faves on Monday Night Football who allows fewer than 20 points per game (SDQL Text: DIV and AF and day = Monday and line <= -6 and tA(o:points) <= 20).

Of the 16 home dogs in this profile only five scored more than 17.5 points and in games where the home dog also had a weak offense to go along with the road faves stout D, the home team averaged 13.0 PPG with 3 of 9 going OV 17.5 points. It’s worth noting that the three home dogs who went OV were either playing in the first-half of the season or indoors.

Divisional home dogs on turf have done well the past few years, especially late in the season where the current run shows a 12-1 ATS record. Miami has turned a corner when it comes to December road games against the AFC East but they haven’t done so by way of powering teams over with offense, more so with a strong defense that has translated into a 3-10 O/U record their past 13 games. The Dolphins were lit up by Peyton Manning and the Broncos last week but under the Monday night spotlight we don’t expect a repeat performance.

Pick: Take the Jets Team Total UNDER 17.5 points

 

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