Small conference road faves have had a tough go the past couple months but San Francisco is looking to buck that trends when they take on the Washington Redskins for Week 12, Monday Night Football
We’ve had a good week with NFL betting at Pick Sixty despite the unfortunate turn of events in that Tampa Bay vs. Detroit game. The Thursday nighter cashed (Saints TT UN 31.5), Dallas and New York stayed “Under” by a hair, the NFL System of the Week produced two winning picks (1-0 for us on New England) and both plays posted in our SDQL Trends with Benefits feature covered ATS.
Tonight’s contest in Washington is catching the usual gameday steam on the road chalk and we like San Fran to cover the spread. Here are some Monday Night Football (MNF) betting stats backed by the SDQL database at KillerSports.com.
WEEK 12 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
SAN FRANCISCO at WASHINGTON
Best Online Sportsbook Odds: Niners -4 (William Hill) and O/U 47
The 49ers have fallen short of expectations in back-to-back weeks against Carolina and New Orleans. Since 2011, aka the Jim Harbaugh era, San Fran is 6-1 SU/ATS off two games where their DPS was in the negative. They were a favorite in all seven games, went 2-1 SU/ATS on the road and scored 19-24-35 points, the 35 coming earlier this year on Thursday Night Football at St. Louis (Week 4). In the three road games San Fran allowed just 10 total points in the first-half.
San Francisco’s rushing yards (RY) have come down each of the past two weeks since their bye. Against Jacksonville in London, San Fran rushed for 221 yards. Against Carolina their box score read 105 RY and then last week at New Orleans the Niners only managed 81 RY.
Teams whose RY decrease in consecutive weeks win 56-percent of their games SU since 2003 and the past two years they are 63-44-1 ATS (59-percent). When playing on the road this has been a solid spot both SU and ATS since 2008 and the recent form shows a brilliant 14-2-1 ATS record.
SDQL: ppp:RY > pp:RY > p:RY and AF and REG and line >= -8 and season >= 2012
Second-half of the season, MNF home dogs coming off a divisional road loss are 4-8 SU/ATS including a current run of five-straight losses since 1995. On average these teams are outscored 28-19 and the last five in a row, each lost by more than a TD. The average line in all 12 of these games is 3.7 which is close to the best online betting line offered all week. We have a strong opinion that this game will start slow and if you are interested in betting props, consider the first quarter UNDER 9.5 at even money. For our official play we booked the road team at -4.