Monday Night Football, NFL Picks: 49ers at Rams

San Francisco is in St. Louis tonight, the Niners looking to build on a pair of strong home wins over Philly and Kansas City. We have two plays booked on this contest, handicapping notes and a betting tip for Week 7 looking at underdogs off a bye week.

The San Francisco 49ers are 11-2-1 ATS laying points on the road in their last 14 opportunities and opened this week as a 3-point fave with a price. Early online betting action has driven the price to -3.5 at several books but for -125, you can still get the road chalk at -3 and we’ve got them earning their fourth win against a worn out Rams D.

WEEK 6 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Line: Niners -3 (-125) and O/U 43.5

The Rams made a game of it the past two weeks but close doesn’t count and their D has fallen to 30^th in league scoring (39.8 PPG allowed). San Fran is only 20^th in scoring at 22 points per contest but the Niners rank fifth in third down conversions. They travel well under Jim Harbaugh’s tutelage and will take advantage of this primetime stage to prove they are serious about winning the west.

 

San Fran went 4-0 SU/ATS last year in road games against losing teams and three of those four games went over the number. League wide, road teams with a winning record have feasted on losing clubs, going 55-23 ATS when the host’s record is below .250 (Rams are 1-4, .200). St. Louis also faces the difficult task of gearing up just a week after facing Philadelphia. Road teams who lost high scoring games in Philly have yet to crack the win column since Chip Kelly took over!

 

Road faves are 10-4 ATS this week, their fourth winning week of the season and we’ve got the Niners adding to that total tonight.

Pick: Take the 49ers

Pick: Take the OVER 43.5 for a half-unit

 

Sportsdatabase.com SDQL Tip

Two teams will be coming off a bye in Week 7 (Saints, Chiefs) and early NFL odds suggest both of them will be getting points. These teams are a pedestrian 17-15 ATS the past couple seasons in general but with the SDQL database, we narrowed down the pointspreads to find two solid angles. Click the following links for a complete analysis.

Small pups of less than a field goal are 17-28 ATS since 2001, suggesting a play ON Detroit when they host the Saints.

 

Bigger dogs, getting +3 to +7 points on the road against a divisional foe are 9-19 ATS the past 13 years, lending support to the San Diego Chargers when they host the Chiefs.

 

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