Monday MLB Picks: Brewers at Marlins

In 15 home games since 2004 with a total of ‘7’ and line within 25 cents of ‘Pick em’ the Marlins are 9-3-1 O/U with a current steak of 5-straight overs

 

If the Miami Marlins could play against the New York Mets every day of the season they would leading the majors in scoring (5.4 RPG against NYM in 11 games) but tonight at Marlins Park they’ll have to settle for the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

Since 2009, the Marlins are just 11-19 vs. the Brew-Crew but they have still managed to score 5.0 runs per game (RPG) and the 21 games produced a record of 20-9-1 O/U with Milwaukee averaging 5.5 RPG. The recent trend since Sept. 25, 2011 is 9-1 O/U with the two teams combining for 12 RPG and all four games in Miami sailing over the posted total. Here’s an SDQL link with the breakdown:

 

team = Marlins and o:team = Brewers and season >= 2009 and date >= 20110924

 

Yovani Gallardo (4-6, 5.25 ERA) will start today vs. Marlins righty Ricky Nolasco (3-6, 3.16 ERA) and Gallardo has been an “Over” pitcher every season since 2010 including a 9-4 O/U mark in 13 starts this season. MLB lines favor Milwaukee -115 and the posted total of ‘7’ is creeping up through today’s sports betting action. Here is Gallardo’s history since 2010, compliments of SportsDatabase.com:

 

starter = Yovani Gallardo and season >= 2010

 

In five career starts, Gallardo has dominated the Marlins going 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA but he hasn’t faced them since 2011 and while Miami is only marginally worse at home since then (.333 WP in 2013 vs. a .395 WP in 2011), Gallardo’s ERA in 2011 is exactly 1.50 higher than his career average (3.75). Playing off back-to-back road wins and riding a three-game win streak at home, this could be a good chance for the Marlins to crack their goose egg vs. Milwaukee’s “ace”.

 

Nolasco was cruising through his past four starts may catch a break tonight if Ryan Braun (thumb) is unable to play but there are still plenty of weapons in the Brewers lineup who could make life hard on the right-hander.

 

Logan Morrison is back in the lineup for Miami and he was 2 for 4 in his debut against the Mets Sunday. Giancarlo Stanton is also slated to make his return Monday and the hot-hitting rookie outfielder Marcell Ozuna will stay in the lineup, looking to improve on his impressive home batting average of .339. Ozuna has reached base safely in 13-straight home games for Miami and 15 of 16 times overall since making his debut April 30.

 

The Marlins have played 15 home games since 2004 with a total of 7 and line within 25 cents of ‘Pick em’ and they are 9-3-1 O/U with 8.1 average RPG and a current steak of 5-straight overs (3-0 O/U in 2013). The home dog has a certain temptation for this series opener but with each team carrying a bit of momentum we are making our first pick of the week a play on the total.

Pick: Take the Over 7 (-117)

 

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