Monday Baseball: Royals at Astros; Free Picks

Our first week of MLB picks went 3-0 and we’ll look to continue that run with an Over/Under prediction from the Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros!

The Kansas City Royals are off to a flying start in 2016, registering four wins and a loss in their five-game homestand to open the season. It doesn’t matter if their current three-game win streak came at the hands of the hapless Twins; what matters is that the Royals are starting to swing the bat well with 26 hits and 15 runs scored over the weekend.

’15’ is almost as many runs as the Houston Astros gave up during Collin McHugh’s first start in New York, a 16-6 loss, and today McHugh will look to settle things down in a rematch of last year’s first round playoff matchup. Odds for this game opened at Houston -130 and O/U 9, and while it looked as if the moneyline was getting early attention, that trend has reversed back to its initial post. The total is down a half-run to 8.5 with nickel juice on either end.


McHugh was roughed up for six runs in the first inning his last time out and according to the Sports Database, that’s a sure sign of things to come. When small HFs off a road loss host an opponent off a home win and the host team gave up double-digit runs in the starter’s last start, the total has gone 8-0 O/U with games averaging 14.5 total runs. Run this SDQL text for a look at the perfect trend: HF and so:runs > 9 and total >= 9 and line > -135 and p:AL and op:HW

McHuge has a good record at home vs. winning teams, going 12-4 SU all-time, and the fact Houston is making its home debut off a road loss in Milwaukee should have the hitters fired up. Small faves up to -135 in this spot are 72-47 SU including an 11-6 SU record in April, and when we focus on the early season games there is also a great value on the total with 15 overs and 2 unders (SDQL Text: H and p:AL and tS(W) < oS(W) and -135 < line < 105 and op:HW and o:WP > 50 and month = 4)

Early in the season with a reasonable total, the side/total are both money with this profile (23-11 SU and 19-12-3 O/U) and April games with a total less than O/U 10 are 11-1 O/U, averaging more than 11 RPG. Chris Young won’t strike fear against any decent lineup and with both teams swinging for the fences, I like the value on the total more than the moneyline.

Pick: Take the Royals and Astros OVER

Note: @PickSixtySports tweeted this total Sunday night at “Over” 9 runs so we will grade on that total but if you’re booking today, make sure you find a sportsbook offering O/U 8.5 runs.

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