MNF Over/Under pick for Week 14’s finale between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles!
NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Week 14 Monday Night Football Odds: Eagles -9.5 and O/U 45.5
The New York Giants have tanked on another season and the latest setback was an 18-point home loss to the Packers. They’ll try and shake that off tonight in Philly and leading them onto the field for the first time since Week 2 is none other than Eli Manning.
The two-time Super Bowl champ lost 35-17 in Dallas to start the season. Then, after another loss in Buffalo, HC Pat Shurmur made the switch to r-QB Daniel Jones. Manning has literally nothing to lose at this point and the hope is that he can quickly re-develop some chemistry with his favorite targets. Eli said he isn’t concerned about auditioning for a new team with this start but that’s crazy talk. There’s a multi-million dollar contract with his name on it for 2020. All Manning has to do is prove he’s still got zip in that arm.
Philly is off an embarrassing road loss in Miami. When I punched this scenario into the Sports Database it projected a 29 point night for the Eagles with zero chance of them losing straight up. The past four home faves had each won SU/ATS, scoring 27-plus points apiece. Philly’s team total for this game is listed at 27 or 27.5. I considered that as an “Over” play but in the end, the full game total looked better.
Besides, the Giants have given up 30-plus points in five of six road games this year. They have also allowed 30-plus in three of their past four. When road dogs on grass with such a porous D give up more than 27, the full game totals are 26-3 O/U. The cost on team totals is often higher than flat betting totals, too. The way I look at it, if Philly is going to score more than 27 points, this one’s going to hit 50.
WEEK 14 MNF OVER/UNDER PICK
Saquon Barkley rushed for 101 yards on 13 carries last time he faced the Eagles. He also secured seven of eight targets for 41 through the air. The second-year back is averaging 19.4 touches per game this season and last week against the Packers, he finished with 83 rushing yards. That was his highest total since Week 2 and New York would be wise to lean on their workhorse if they want to compete tonight.
With a total greater than 40, Manning’s primetime road record when his team rushes for at least 85 yards is 14 overs and 2 unders. The average total in those games was 45.8 and they went over by 13 PPG.
The Eagles are 8-2 SU on Monday Night Football since 2013. Eagles QB Carson Wentz has done well in primetime divisional home games, going 3-1 SU/ATS with 3 overs and 1 under. The loss was last year, 27-20 to the Cowboys. The under was also in 2018, a 28-13 stomp on Washington.
Philly is 10-3 O/U after giving up 30-plus points since 2013 and their D ranks 6th in one my custom SDQL profiles that looks at ‘tackles for a loss’. In the past few years they’ve been “live” four times when hosting a divisional rival and Philly is 4-0 O/U in this spot with games averaging 53 points. One such occurrence was against the Giants in 2017 and Philly won 27-24.
Week 14 MNF Over/Under Pick: Take the Over