MLB Picks: Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are 2-20 the past two years when playing a day game as a dog after getting blown out the previous night

 

The Chicago Cubs have had a hard time rebounding from blowout losses and today at Wrigley they are hoping left-hander Travis Wood can help steer them out of the 12-2 train wreck from Tuesday.

 

Mike Leake is starting for the Cincinnati Reds and if you were to toss out April’s numbers, Leake is leading the way amongst National League starting pitchers with a 1.59 ERA. Leake is 4-1 on the road this year with a 2.62 ERA and unlike a lot of other pitchers, Wrigley Field has not been a beast to Leake over the past few years. In seven visits since 2010, Leake has allowed three or less earned runs against the Cubs five times.

 

In 13 day games on the road Cinci is just 7-6 this year but scoring 5.5 runs per game (RPG). They swept the Cubs in three day games at Wrigley the first week of May, scoring 19 runs and thanks to SDQL from SportsDatabase.com, the full list of MLB team records in day games can be seen here:

 

team and DAY and season=2013 and A

 

Here is another high-percentage trend that offers some value towards the Reds as a small road fave:

 

The Cubs are 2-20 ($+1,615) since August 17, 2011 when playing a day game as a dog after allowing 6+ runs in a night game

 

Home plate umpire John Tumpane has earned a reputation as a ‘homer’ the past couple years but those numbers soften considerably when the road team is favored. For today’s first play we are backing the Reds -120.

 

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