MLB Picks: Red Sox at Orioles

Boston has played 6 overs and 17 unders the past 23 games against a team off back-to-back losses


Boston is in Baltimore tonight for the first of a 3-game series and Greg Dempson has a free pick to consider from the first five innings. The latest baseball odds for this game favor Boston -110 and the total for the first five innings is 5 Under -120.


Boston has been in a scoring funk of late averaging only 3.3 RPG with the under cashing a winning ticket in six out of their past seven contests. The Red Sox have lost five of their last eight games while batting .225. I’m banking on their bats to remain silent this evening and note the Red Sox are hitting a paltry .194 against Baltimore. Look at the numbers for some of their top hitters:


Jacoby Ellsbury (5 for 30), Dustin Pedroia (4 for 22), Stephen Drew (2 for 17) and David Ortiz (2 for 16) highlight the list and Pedroia is also 1 for 19 in his last five games vs. the Rays and Yankees. In their last three road games (at Oakland), the Red Sox scored a combined six runs.


John Lackey gets the start for Boston and he’s been anything but “lack-luster” vs. the Orioles posting a record of 12–4 with an ERA of 3.31 ERA in 20 career starts. Lackey/team are 14–6 vs. Baltimore while the total in those 20 contests is 6–13–1 to the under. On June 15, in Baltimore, he allowed two runs in seven innings of a 5-4 win. Lackey has lost two of his last three but posted a 3.54 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 20.3 innings while walking only five batters. Lackey is 0–13 to the under in all grass games this season and those contests have averaged 6.6 combined runs. In 10 road starts this season, Lackey is 2–8 to the under.


Chris Tillman (12-3, 3.84 ERA) takes the mound for the Orioles. The right-hander has limited opponents to three runs or fewer in eight of nine starts. On Sunday, Tillman gave up 2 runs over eight-plus innings in a 4-2 win at Texas. He’s 2–0 with a 1.54 ERA in his last six starts against the Red Sox. He allowed only 3 hits over six-plus innings in a 2-0 win June 14 at Camden Yards. Tillman is 3–7–1 to the under in his 11 home starts this season. The Orioles are 9–20 to the under when facing a team winning between 54 to 62% of their games this season with an average combined score of 8.2 RPG.

Pick: Take the Under 5 (-120) in the first 5 innings


Greg has been providing picks and sports handicapping information for nearly 40 years covering football along with the NHL, NBA, pro baseball picks and college football and basketball. For free picks daily and winning systems visit Greg Dempson Sports