MLB Picks: Cincinnati at Atlanta

The ‘price is right’ on tonight’s early total for the Reds and Braves

 

[dropcap2]P[/dropcap2]ro handicapper Greg Dempson weighs in with his prediction for Thursday night’s baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves where online books make the Braves a small moneyline favorite.

 

HOME COOKING

Atlanta’s Tim Hudson has a 3-0 record in eight home starts this season and the Braves are a perfect 8-0 in those games. I looked at the first five innings of those eight contests and noted that the scores were 4–1, 1–1, 8–1, 5–2, 3–2, 1–1, 0–0 and 4–2 in favor of Atlanta. So in five of the eight games, Atlanta was ahead after five innings and they were tied in the other three games.

 

Hudson last faced the Reds on May 15, 2012 at home and Atlanta led 6–0 after six with Johnny Cueto on the mound for Cincinnati. Tonight the Reds hand the ball to Mat Latos, who is 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA on the road. He’s started 18 games this season in total and in 12 of the 18 contests, a total of four or more combined runs have been scored after five completed innings.

 

When away from home, seven out of 10 Latos’ starts have seen combined scores of four or more runs. Latos has produced ‘Five inning’ combined scores of 4–2, 2–2 and 0–6 in his last three appearances vs. the Braves.

 

Tonight’s home plate umpire is Andy Fletcher and he hasn’t called balls and strikes that often in Atlanta but in his two most recent visits (2012), the scores were 5–1 and 6–0 for Atlanta after 5 innings.

 

For tonight’s game I’ve invested 1-unit on the Reds/Braves “Over” 3.5 runs (-114) in the first 5 innings.

 

Greg has been providing picks and sports handicapping information for nearly 40 years covering hockey along with NFL, NBA, pro baseball picks and college football and basketball. For free picks daily and winning systems visit Greg Dempson Sports