MLB Over/Under Pick: Jays at Royals

Pick Sixty’s MLB Over/Under pick for tonight looks at the Jays and Royals series opener. The Jays traded Stroman away to the Mets this past weekend and they also played some wild games against TB. Toronto fought back from a 7-run lead to win on Saturday but one day later, they gave up an equally huge win and lost 10-9.

MLB Over/Under pick Blue Jays Royals

Toronto also traded away its leadoff hitter, Eric Sogard, and called up top prospect Bo Bichette

MLB OVER/UNDER PICK
Toronto at Kansas City
MLB Odds: Royals -130 and O/U 9.5

The Jays have scored 47 runs in their past 10 games, an average of 4.7 RPG. On the season, Toronto is averaging 4.4 RPG and on the road, 4.6 RPG.

June was their best month at 5.1 RPG and it has slipped back in July to 4.8 RPG (same at home and away).

This season, when averaging anywhere from 45-51 RPG in its previous 10 games, Toronto is 9-16 SU and 5-18-2 O/U. Away in this spot, they are 5-8 SU and 2-10-1 O/U.

Toronto is the No. 1 “Under” team in this profile for 2019, 10 percentage points ‘lower’ than the Cards.

The past 3 years in this angle, Toronto is 39-62-5 O/U (61% UN) and they’ve stayed UN by an average of 0.8 RPG. Even the past 10 years they are still a 56% UN team.

On the road, 3-year record = 19-32-3 O/U (63% UN) by 1.0 RPG.

On the road, 10-year record = 74-97-8 O/U (57% UN) by 0.2 RPG.

And here’s the kicker: Any MLB team the past 10 years that is playing on the road off a home loss, scoring 45-51 in their past 10 and averaging between 4-4.8 runs on the road this season (Toronto), has a 7-19-1 O/U record when the total is greater than 9. You can see which way our MLB Over/Under pick is heading. Check the SDQL for this baseball trend at Sports Database!

PICK SIXTY PREDICTION

Eliminate the big dogs of +150 or more and the record in that angle goes to 3-15-1 O/U. Incidentally, the road teams in this spot are 4-15 SU as well, losing by -3.5 runs per contest.

There is value on KC at -130 to win this game but the cost of playing the UNDER is much lower.

My MLB Over/Under pick tonight is on the Blue Jays & Royals UNDER 9.5 at -115

 

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