MLB Best Bet: Blue Jays at Rangers

The Jays have had a day of rest following thier absolute thrashing of the Angels over the weekend. Now it’s time to get back to business against a Rangers team who are on a tear against lefties!

Rangers are a .500 O/U team at home this season and riding a 1-6-1 O/U streak in their past eight home games. Texas pitchers only allowed more than three runs in one of those eight games. HOU can occasionally hit but TB and SEA are bottom-5 run producers. Jays are first in scoring and they took advantage of the Angels’ shoddy fielding in LA, but looking at Texas — they’re ranked right near the bottom of the league for errors per game (home and away).

Two lefties on the hill and this total has been bought down from 9.5. Guess Vegas must something I don’t but the Jays are the top team in the majors vs. LHP (avg and OPS). Texas has won 8-straight games vs. lefty starters, scoring 6.1 RPG. Since July 20, the Rangers are 8-4-1 O/U vs. lefties, scoring 6.5 runs per game.

Toronto hitters haven’t had great success vs. Holland (.224 avg) but they beat him 7-2 in Texas just two years ago. Those four previous losses TOR had against Texas from 2010-12, their lineup had nowhere near the depth it has now.

Texas hitters have not hit Buehrle well his last two starts Arlington:

4-2 Jays win; 6.2 IP, 2 ER on 7 hits with 1 walk

8-0 Jays win; 7.0 IP, 0 ER on 4 hits with 1 walk

But none of the top Texas hitters were even with the team for those games. Odor, Napoli, Fielder, Choo. Those guys all have a .750 or better OPS against him life-time. Beltre is decent against Burr, too, and now he’s got a much better supporting cast.

Wind is light, in from center, and this is one of the most unpredictable parks in baseball to play totals but with the way the Jays are hitting, and the age of their starter, I think O/U 9 at even money is well worth a shot. The day off helps Toronto’s cause and given the fact New York won yesterday, this should be a focused group.

Pick: Take the Jays and Rangers OVER 9 runs at -101

Get an early look at Week 1 NFL lines or check out our New England Patriots Road Map with suggested NFL picks to start the season!