The Toronto Blue Jays opened their road schedule for 2018 with a 8-5 win at Texas. Today the Jays will hand the ball to Marcus Stroman against Rangers lefty, Mike Minor.
Overnight lines for the Jays went as high as -140 but Texas money has been flowing in steadily today and the current moneyline reads -115.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS AT TEXAS RANGERS
Line: Blue Jays -115 and O/U 8.5 (-120)
The first two home games for Toronto are a distant memory as the Jays (5-3) improved to 5-1 in their past six with last night’s win. Stroman had a no decision in his first outing, going 5.0 innings against the Yanks in a 7-4 win, and he was 4-1 in 2017 away vs. teams with a losing record. The Blue Jays were chalk in all five of those wins but the one loss was in Texas (3-6).
Toronto went 2-10 on the road in the second game of a series last year, including a 1-3 mark as a fave, but Stroman collected the one win. That was early in the season at Milwaukee, an 8-4 victory.
Texas has a losing record in April three of the past four years (.447). At home, they are 20-21 and as a home dog the Rangers show 8-15 (.348). When playing as an April home dog off a home loss, Texas is 3-8.
The Jays hold an overall advantage in this series each of the past six years. Their record is 29-13 and that includes a 16-6 record at Texas. Toronto outscored the Rangers 5.6 to 3.6 in those 22 games, making the run line look like an appealing option here.
Toronto had two rough starts against Mike Minor when he was a starter with Atlanta but the most recent was 2013. Minor has been a successful reliever since then and he only last 4.2 innings in his first start this year vs. Houston.
Our top play today is on the Jays at -115 moneyline. Toronto has not posted a losing record as a road fave vs. lefties since 2010. They are 33-19 overall since then for +10.0 ROI. That is a solid .635 win percentage which shows great value vs. the .535 implied probability of this line.
Our home plate umpire is Mark Wegner and he has not been kind to the Rangers. Texas is 2-7 at home with Wegner, outscored 5.4 to 4.0. They are 6-8 on the road with him as well, and 4-10 as a dog, regardless of site.These teams do not like each other but in my opinion, Toronto is the play today.